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1062009.  Fri Mar 07, 2014 7:11 pm Reply with quote

I'm hearing that some elements in Polish politics and media are scaremongering.

No one who matters seriously thinks that Russia plans to invade Poland once it's done with Ukraine, but a couple of populist politicians of the further right (think Nigel Farage but without the common sense) have mentioned the notion, mostly for the publicity.

In reality it's practically unthinkable. For a start Poland is just about the most pro-American nation in Europe these days, and one could adduce a dozen further reasons why it won't happen.

What is being mentioned more seriously is the idea that a trade embargo as between Russia and the EU could cause Russia to cease to supply oil and gas to Poland. This is still fairly unlikely, according to my favourite Polish journalist*, because Russia can't afford it. In any case Poland can reasonably easily source oil and gas from elsewhere if it comes to.

For sure, any kind of trade ban would not be welcome news in Poland and the Baltic Republic, but they'd live with it. Poland's biggest trading partner (both ways) is Germany, and there are plenty of Poles who would prefer to have no dealings at all with Moskwa.

* That'll be my third cousin once removed, who is a radio news journalist based in Gdańsk.


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