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Elections 2021

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barbados
1383569.  Sun Jun 20, 2021 12:45 pm Reply with quote

Code:

Initiate spellcheck on Tetsabbs future posts
[mode] Let him who is without sin cast the first stone[/mode]

 
suze
1383575.  Sun Jun 20, 2021 3:40 pm Reply with quote

barbados wrote:
This was discussed elsewhere - it appears that the Labor to Lib Dem swing was around the amount of votes the Lib Dems won by, and the deserting Tory vote was around the same number as the drop in turn out - it looks very much like a regular Bi Election outcome, the Lib Dems will lose it once again Come 2024


That may very well be what happens.

By-elections don't really count when one is studying patterns in elections, and this particular by-election had a rather low turnout.

It is true that the (LD + Lab) votes figure in this by-election was rather similar to that in the general election, but that's out of a considerably smaller total. At the same time the Con figure collapsed to less than half of the general election figure.

Is it a freak result that will not be repeated? Yes, probably. But at the same time, it does provide evidence for part of PWUM's assertion. Traditionally, winning seats in Home Counties suburbia has been the easy bit of a Conservative leader's job - but it may not be any more.

I cannot agree with PWUM that this is the sort of seat that Labour needs to be winning, though; it's not a riding where Labour has ever had much appeal. In contrast, my riding of Rochester and Strood is the sort of seat that Labour needs to be winning - but its decision not to bother campaigning here at the general election does not fill me with confidence.

 
barbados
1383591.  Sun Jun 20, 2021 6:59 pm Reply with quote

If the Labour Party had an 80 odd seat majority in parliament, and it was chucking it down outside (there were yellow storm warnings for Wednesday through to Friday in Amersham), would you go out to vote in a bi-election?

I really donít think you can read anything into that result.

 
suze
1383631.  Mon Jun 21, 2021 11:50 am Reply with quote

Well I would, yes. I have never chosen not to vote in a Parliamentary election. The only ones I don't bother with are elections for Police and Crime Commissioners, since they are pointless elections for pointless posts.

Psephologists usually assert that bad weather favours the Conservatives, essentially because their voters are more likely than Labour voters to possess cars and umbrellas. There may once have been something in it, but by now it's almost irrelevant.

All the same, I'm going to more or less agree with:

barbados wrote:
I really donít think you can read anything into that result.



The next by-election coming up is on Thursday next week in Batley and Spen, precipitated by the incumbent Labour MP being elected Mayor of West Yorkshire.

The runes have the Conservatives winning that one, which would need a swing of around 4%, although they're not as sure about it as they were one week ago. If that is indeed what happens, Sir Keir Starmer's P45 may not be long in coming.

All the fringe parties are standing in Batley and Spen after sitting Chesham and Amersham out. There are five different far right parties (how very dare Britain First stand in that particular riding), George Galloway is standing as a Communist (for the first time, officially endorsed by the Communist Party of Great Britain), and the Loonies will be there too!

 
Alexander Howard
1383633.  Mon Jun 21, 2021 12:10 pm Reply with quote

George Galloway is standing! On his own record he will seek to split the Muslim vote, and by standing as a Communist he will split the Looney vote.

 
barbados
1383636.  Mon Jun 21, 2021 12:31 pm Reply with quote

Going back to Chesham, did I imagine there was once a gentlemanís agreement that following the death of an incumbent, the subsequent By-election was ďuncontestedĒ?

 
suze
1383637.  Mon Jun 21, 2021 12:41 pm Reply with quote

That's not happened since the 1940s. The convention arose during the World Wars, when it was felt improper to contest a by-election if the death had been as a result of enemy action.

The Conservatives did not contest the Hemsworth by-election of 1946. The Labour MP who died had been a miner in a mining town, and had taken 81% of the vote at the general election - and the Conservatives decided not to bother once Labour had put up another miner.

But other than the special case of the Speaker's seat - another convention which seems now to have gone by the wayside - there hasn't been an uncontested by-election in Great Britain since. (Geographical term carefully chosen. There have been a handful in Northern Ireland.)

If we had only two parties, uncontested elections might still happen in seats where one or other just isn't going to win. But in these days when publicity seeking fringe candidates will always stand, there's not much to be gained by the two main parties having such an agreement.

 
dr.bob
1383665.  Tue Jun 22, 2021 6:00 am Reply with quote

suze wrote:
If that is indeed what happens, Sir Keir Starmer's P45 may not be long in coming.


I notice Andy Burnham's been making a lot of noise recently. Is he not-so-subtly positioning himself to make a move as soon as Sir Keir's P45 hits the doormat?

 
Brock
1383677.  Tue Jun 22, 2021 11:13 am Reply with quote

suze wrote:
That's not happened since the 1940s. The convention arose during the World Wars, when it was felt improper to contest a by-election if the death had been as a result of enemy action.


There really seem to be very few definite conventions. When the Tory MP Ian Gow was assassinated by the IRA in 1990, the ensuing Eastbourne by-election was contested by all the parties, and won by the Liberal Democrats on a 20% swing. I was quite surprised about this at the time.

Yet the major parties, apart from Labour, agreed not to contest the 2016 Batley & Spen by-election arising from the assassination of Jo Cox. (There were nine fringe candidates, none of whom kept their deposits.)

 
suze
1383688.  Tue Jun 22, 2021 5:20 pm Reply with quote

That 1990 by-election was before I came to the UK, so I wasn't aware of it at the time.

But I'm reading that Labour had originally intended to stand aside in a riding where it would never expect to win, but changed its mind once it became clear that the LibDems would be running. The by-election became in effect a referendum on the Community Charge (aka poll tax) which had been introduced in England earlier that year, and the result of the by-election is claimed as one of the factors leading to Margaret Thatcher's resignation four weeks later.

 
CB27
1383704.  Wed Jun 23, 2021 5:18 am Reply with quote

Eastbourne was an anomaly, and I would lay the blame on Thatcher, because apart from the poll tax which ensured they were going to have a low turnout, what possibly swung it for the Lib Dems was that Thatcher decided to publicly mock the party and their supporters.

I think she singlehandedly increased support for the Lib Dems in several areas in her last year of office.

 
Alexander Howard
1383705.  Wed Jun 23, 2021 5:32 am Reply with quote

You have to be careful what you say in Eastbourne or you won't get out of the town alive - in fact, not many do get out of Eastbourne alive.

 
Brock
1383717.  Wed Jun 23, 2021 8:50 am Reply with quote

The thing that surprised me about Eastbourne wasn't that the Lib Dems won it, it was that they decided to contest it at all. It could have set a very dangerous precedent, encouraging the IRA to target other Tory MPs in the hope of destabilizing the Government. I've been generally supportive of the Lib Dems throughout my life but that was one decision of theirs I disagreed with.

 
CB27
1383729.  Wed Jun 23, 2021 12:32 pm Reply with quote

While I wasn't involved at all anywhere near Eastbourne, as someone very much involved with local campaigning in the 90s, I can tell you that I was never surprised by anything the Lib Dems did.

While in many places the contest tends to be between Labour and Conservatives, many campaigners got on and it was a healthy competition based on ideology and policies, but in many places there was a shared hatred of the Lib Dems and their tendency to do anything for a win, and their open animosity to anyone from any other party.

 
Brock
1383734.  Wed Jun 23, 2021 1:27 pm Reply with quote

CB27 wrote:
In many places there was a shared hatred of the Lib Dems and their tendency to do anything for a win


Really? Eastbourne was the first by-election ever won by the Liberal Democrats.

 

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