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Labour Leadership contest

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Who will be the next Labour Leader?
Lisa Nandy
0%
 0%  [ 0 ]
Sir Keir Starmer
80%
 80%  [ 4 ]
Rebecca Long Bailey
20%
 20%  [ 1 ]
Total Votes : 5

barbados
1345354.  Sun Apr 05, 2020 5:30 am Reply with quote

Not willing to pay more to the Murdoch empire than absolutely necessary, I only have the BBC’s synopsis of what it says.
And while I am aware that the politically neutral corporation is anything but I can’t see what there is to agree with over the handling of the crisis.
How can you have a publicly available exit strategy for a crisis that is changing as frequently as this - the initial aim was to close schools for two weeks - that takes us to Easter holidays (now). The schools will not reopen in two weeks when they are due to - we will be lucky if they open in September.
How can you roll out a national vaccination program? A vaccine does not exist, and we don’t know how much vaccine will be required.
How can you suggest that the government have not been clear on the testing. Boris Johnson, Chris Whitty, Stephen Powis, and Patrick Valance have been consistent from day one what the priorities are with testing, and what the next stages of testing will be.They have explained why the further testing could not come sooner..
The government have on each occasion explained what the problem has been with the distribution of PPE, and how they are tackling the problem we are a matter of three or so weeks into a need that has gone from “we need 10 boxes of face masks” to “we need 1000 boxes of face masks” over night. That will take time for that log jam to clear - it is no one’s fault.
The answer would be to offer solutions to the problems - not complain because there are no solutions available.

 
PDR
1345356.  Sun Apr 05, 2020 6:39 am Reply with quote

barbados wrote:

How can you have a publicly available exit strategy for a crisis that is changing as frequently as this


Very easily. You can set out the criteria that would indicate each aspect of the special measures is no longer needed. If we assume the current measures will need to continue for many months we can look to normal activities (schools, non-covid healthcare, supply of food, fuel and energy etc ) can be sustained on a non-crisis basis. You can lay down a strategy by which the normal process of the legislature scrutinising the executive can be restored (the one thing that Generalissimo Boris under the orders of his Glorious Leader Dominic have been trying to dismantle since the first day he came to power). Essentially all the normal elements of a Business Continuity Management Plan.

Quote:

How can you roll out a national vaccination program? A vaccine does not exist, and we don’t know how much vaccine will be required.


Work to develop vaccines is going on in labs all over the world. It would be reasonable to assume that at some stage an effective one will be developed. As and when that happens we will need facilities to manufacture it in quantity, distribute it and administer it to the whole population. We could be making plans and preparing facilities ready for when it's available. We know we'll need one dose for everyone, and so one nurse/doctor/medic appointment for each person. We can also be rounding up all known anti-vax activists for summary execution on a charge of child-abuse by proxy. Our strategy could be looking at whether we could have teams of non-medical people specially trained to administer vaccines to increase the speed of vaccination, and then identifying & training them in advance.

Quote:

How can you suggest that the government have not been clear on the testing. Boris Johnson, Chris Whitty, Stephen Powis, and Patrick Valance have been consistent from day one what the priorities are with testing, and what the next stages of testing will be.They have explained why the further testing could not come sooner..


And were found to be lying. Again. Their priority is talking about testing rather than doing it. They've ,made statements about orders placed that weren't, and they've claimed numbers of tests available as number of tests performed. The companies who make the stuff have been sitting around waiting for orders. All we hear is excuses - in other countries they've actually achieved stuff, but Boris has just been hiding in his bunker making up ever more lies.

Quote:

The government have on each occasion explained what the problem has been with the distribution of PPE, and how they are tackling the problem we are a matter of three or so weeks into a need that has gone from “we need 10 boxes of face masks” to “we need 1000 boxes of face masks” over night. That will take time for that log jam to clear - it is no one’s fault.


Again, turns out not to be true. The companies who make the stuff have also been sitting around waiting for orders. Other countries anticipated this need much earlier than Grupenfuhrer Cummings did. So it very much is a matter of fault.

Quote:
The answer would be to offer solutions to the problems - not complain because there are no solutions available.


The normal process for a crisis would be to establish a cross-party forum based on the privy council members (or similar) to pool expertise and ideas. This hasn't happened, because Cummings won't let Boris talk to anyone who isn't a Cummings-approved advisor. And if you read the full article you would see that there are plenty of positive suggestions - of course establishing a strategy rather than just tactical firefighting is in itself a positive solution, but incompetent mendacious amateurs like Boris and Cummings lack the will and the competence.

PDR

 
barbados
1345364.  Sun Apr 05, 2020 7:45 am Reply with quote

Strange thing about the vaccine, I’m not a doctor but as I understand it the reason for the antigen testing development is to discover which of those asymptomatic have actually had the virus, because they will not need a vaccine. So if we build the facility to cope with the vaccination of 66.4 Miliion people, a lot of that will be pointless. We currently have 25,499 confirmed cases - we can assume that not all of them are going to die. We don’t know how many actual cases we have, because a lot of the cases have shown now symptoms. So working on the known cases only, were we to have vaccinated all 25,499 cases, 25,000 would have had the vaccine for no reason because they will make a full recovery without assistance.

Looking at the PPE - the problem has not been a shortage of provision, it has been a restriction in the supply chain, there is enough - it is just in the wrong place. Making more wouldn’t resolve the issue - moving it to the right place would. Manufacturers can make 100 billion pieces, the government can order 100 billion pieces, if the blockage is at the central distribution points the hospital stores still wont have the supplies because they will still be stuck in transit.

As for giving people the exit strategy, half the idiots can’t even stay indoors when they are told to, if you tell them they will. Only have to do it for another two weeks (other timescales are available) they will simply see that as a green light to ignore the instruction. It’s all well and good standing on your doorstep clattering cutlery on a Thursday evening, but if you’re going to say “fuck it, the weather’s nice i’m going to the beach” on a Saturday then you aren’t really going to understand why these measures are required are youi?

 
Willie
1345366.  Sun Apr 05, 2020 8:18 am Reply with quote

barbados wrote:
Strange thing about the vaccine, I’m not a doctor but as I understand it the reason for the antigen testing development is to discover which of those asymptomatic have actually had the virus, because they will not need a vaccine.


Sorry, but that might not be true,no matter how many times it is trotted out at the press conferences.

Nobody has enough data to state, with any measure of confidence, that once you have caught and recovered from the virus you are immune for it in the long term.

No virus has a 100% immunity once you have had it, some have a high percentage but by no means all.

 
barbados
1345367.  Sun Apr 05, 2020 8:29 am Reply with quote

Quote:
Nobody has enough data to state, with any measure of confidence, that once you have caught and recovered from the virus you are immune for it in the long term.

No argument from me on that point, but the original query still remains - how can we build the facilities to vaccinate when we don't know how many vaccinatoins are required? (and we won't know that until we have enough data, which I would guess is not something we will know for some time yet.)

 
PDR
1345368.  Sun Apr 05, 2020 8:29 am Reply with quote

barbados wrote:
Strange thing about the vaccine, I’m not a doctor but as I understand it the reason for the antigen testing development is to discover which of those asymptomatic have actually had the virus, because they will not need a vaccine. So if we build the facility to cope with the vaccination of 66.4 Miliion people, a lot of that will be pointless. We currently have 25,499 confirmed cases - we can assume that not all of them are going to die. We don’t know how many actual cases we have, because a lot of the cases have shown now symptoms. So working on the known cases only, were we to have vaccinated all 25,499 cases, 25,000 would have had the vaccine for no reason because they will make a full recovery without assistance.


So instead of making, distributing and administering 66.4m doses we'd only need to make, distribute and administer 66.375m doses. Yes, obviously that will make a HUGE difference to the strategy!

Quote:

Looking at the PPE - the problem has not been a shortage of provision, it has been a restriction in the supply chain, there is enough - it is just in the wrong place. Making more wouldn’t resolve the issue


This is one of the things that the Cummings Junta keep saying but which isn't actually true. If it were true they would not be encouraging every man and his dog who have a 3dprinter to set to full-time production of face mask frames for the NHS (see https://www.3dcrowd.uk/ as just one of many). This is a HIDEOUSLY inefficient way of making the parts (typically take 3 hours per item to print rather than the 1-2 second cycle time you'd get if injection-moulding them) but it's worth it because of the shortage of supply.

But even if it WERE true the the government happend to own one of the most effective rapid-deployment ligistics and distrubution systems in Europe - the military logistic system. It has thousands of trucks & people, dozens of helicopters, tens of fixed-wing freighters, the most advanced emergency planning capability in the world and are well exercised, rehearsed and trained in all kinds of rapid-onset disaster relief work. If the logistic system really were the problem I would expect this to have been swung into action two weeks ago at no more cost to the nation than the fuel. It hasn't been switched on (the troops in question are posting to social media asking why they haven't), so it must either be because the Cummings Junta anre utterly inept, or because the claim that logistics is the bottleneck just isn't true.

The Government HAVE announced a call up of 3,000 reservists, as of the end of the month, so clearly not seen as urgent then...
[/quote]

Quote:

As for giving people the exit strategy, half the idiots can’t even stay indoors when they are told to, if you tell them they will.


That sentence doesn't parse, but you're concerned about idiots - remember they only comprise 52% of the population, and if they insist on socialising they will soon all die from Covid19 (one of its up-sides). But it's a non-sequitur; the existence of idiots doesn't stop you assembling a strategy, it merely adds another item the strategy needs to address.

PDR

 
Willie
1345370.  Sun Apr 05, 2020 8:38 am Reply with quote

PDR wrote:
But even if it WERE true the the government happend to own one of the most effective rapid-deployment ligistics and distrubution systems in Europe - the military logistic system. It has thousands of trucks & people, dozens of helicopters, tens of fixed-wing freighters, the most advanced emergency planning capability in the world and are well exercised, rehearsed and trained in all kinds of rapid-onset disaster relief work. If the logistic system really were the problem I would expect this to have been swung into action two weeks ago at no more cost to the nation than the fuel. It hasn't been switched on (the troops in question are posting to social media asking why they haven't), so it must either be because the Cummings Junta anre utterly inept, or because the claim that logistics is the bottleneck just isn't true.


To be fair, at least as far as I am aware, the military is being used initially to help with the building of the Nightingale hospitals, at least that is what is happening up here. Logistics experts in the military however are on site at NHS distribution centres liaising with the staff that run them asking what is needed and how best to organise and set up lines of communication between the multiple trusts and the military.

 
PDR
1345377.  Sun Apr 05, 2020 9:06 am Reply with quote

My local hospital (Frimley Park) is a half-military hospital, having absorbed the old Cambridge Military Hospital in Aldershot for mutual benefit. It has a half-military staff and full access to military logistics on an on-demand basis. It is short of PPE because the supply chain can't find any to go and get, through either military or NHS channels. So they are not making any demands on the logistic capability.

One of my neighbours is a nursing Major in charge of the military neo-natal department - this is what she said when we were chatting by shouts over the fence yesterday. She has the authority to order anything up to and including helicopter flights where medically needed, and she said they have been explicitly told not to be shy about using their full authority when it will help. If she found a stock of PPE anywhere she'd send a Puma or Chinook for it...

PDR

 
barbados
1345379.  Sun Apr 05, 2020 9:36 am Reply with quote

Quote:
So instead of making, distributing and administering 66.4m doses we'd only need to make, distribute and administer 66.375m doses. Yes, obviously that will make a HUGE difference to the strategy!

So your suggestion, is to build a facility to vaccinate the 66.375m doses, because that is the numbers left when you take away all of the known cases where full recovery has occured.
What about those that have had the virus, yet displayed no symptom? How many fall into that subset?
But as you (and apparently Mr Starmer) suggest, it's simple create the vaccine, not bother to test it, just give it to everyone and (presumably) hope for the best that we aren't passing around some human equivalant of miximatosis in order to satisfy some that don't realise this battle is not one that will be won overnight.

 
barbados
1345380.  Sun Apr 05, 2020 9:39 am Reply with quote

Quote:
If she found a stock of PPE anywhere she'd send a Puma or Chinook for it...

That would suggest that she doesn't know where in the supply chain to send the chinnok to relieve the blockage - because if she did, as you suggest, it would be sent without a second thought.

 
Willie
1345385.  Sun Apr 05, 2020 9:50 am Reply with quote

barbados wrote:
Quote:
If she found a stock of PPE anywhere she'd send a Puma or Chinook for it...

That would suggest that she doesn't know where in the supply chain to send the chinnok to relieve the blockage - because if she did, as you suggest, it would be sent without a second thought.


It will be because the PPE isn't in the supply chain as of yet. If it was in the supply chain within the NHS it would already have been allocated to specific locations and sending in Pumas or Chinooks to requisition that equipment for hospitals it has not been allocated to would be less than helpful.

 
PDR
1345387.  Sun Apr 05, 2020 9:58 am Reply with quote

barbados wrote:

So your suggestion, is to build a facility to vaccinate the 66.375m doses, because that is the numbers left when you take away all of the known cases where full recovery has occured.
What about those that have had the virus, yet displayed no symptom? How many fall into that subset?


I'm not suggesting either. I'm suggesting that we do as we do with other important vaccines - we give them to everyone regardless of whether they have had the virus or not. We would waste 25,000 doses (a miniscule proportion) but save more than the cost in eased administration. We give flu vaccines without worrying about whether the person has already had those strains of flu. We do the same with measels, mumps, rubella, polio, tetenus etc etc. Why be precious about Covid vaccine?

Quote:

But as you (and apparently Mr Starmer) suggest, it's simple create the vaccine, not bother to test it, just give it to everyone


Please don't start this sort of thing Andy - where did I say "not test it". I said "Lets make a plan to get everything in place so that when we have a vaccine we can get it manufactured, distributed and administered in the shortest possible time". Neither I nor Kier Starmer said anything about not testing it.

Quote:

...some that don't realise this battle is not one that will be won overnight.


No one said that either. But we believe there is a much better than 95% probability (from the doc on the radio this morning) that we WILL get a vaccine. So we could sit on our arses and wait for it to happen, and only then start thinking about how we would start to use it (you know - like our Glorious Leader has done with the PPE), or you could start NOW and say "if we work on the assumption that there will be a vaccine then which bits of the implementation plan can we do now, and what prerequisites can we start to put in place, even though we don't know what the vaccine is or when it will be available".

I put it to you that the latter course is urgently required.

PDR

 
PDR
1345388.  Sun Apr 05, 2020 10:02 am Reply with quote

barbados wrote:
Quote:
If she found a stock of PPE anywhere she'd send a Puma or Chinook for it...

That would suggest that she doesn't know where in the supply chain to send the chinnok to relieve the blockage - because if she did, as you suggest, it would be sent without a second thought.


No, it's because there isn't any to be had. The MoD and the NHS have hourly-updated production stats and know where it all is, because they aren't complete idiots. Jen has access to that data and would send a metaphorica or literal chinook* to any place where supplies are bottlenecked, because that's actually how the military supply system operates as a matter of routine.

PDR

* Other logistic solutions are available subject to the specific mission demand

 
Jenny
1345412.  Sun Apr 05, 2020 3:19 pm Reply with quote

If, as seems quite possible, the Covid-19 virus is like the flu virus, it may well mutate every year as the flu does, so large stocks and repeat vaccinations will need to be given, as with flu. Certainly nobody wants to have a repeat of this lockdown.

 
'yorz
1345415.  Sun Apr 05, 2020 3:34 pm Reply with quote

Well, Johnson has been transported to a hospital so he hasn't been putting it on as some thought.

 

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