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Election Truth

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franticllama
1338806.  Sun Dec 15, 2019 12:39 pm Reply with quote

PDR wrote:


I accept that there may well be a viable economic model for an independent Scotland, but I have yet to see it laid out, and I'd be surprised if it could afford headline features like free degrees and prescriptions.

PDR


It could be said that there isn't really a viable economic model for the UK outside the EU* and yet here we are. It seems people don't really vote on such things based on solid evidence - emotion and idealised versions of the past seem to carry more weight.

*Or even there being a UK

 
barbados
1338812.  Sun Dec 15, 2019 1:23 pm Reply with quote

suze wrote:
barbados wrote:
I can only assume that you had just returned from you schoolís christmas party! Itís ok I have experience of such events, and Iím aware that they can get a bit messy. You must have been extremely ďtired and emotionalĒ - either that or you are plain daft (which I donít believe)
However, lets take a little trip down that road.


As I said at the time, you may have giggled at that idea, but please don't.

The Welsh group which called itself Meibion Glyndŵr sent a dozen letter bombs and carried out several hundred arson attacks. That activity ceased when one man got sent to prison for quite a long time. Was it only ever that one man? No one who will talk about it really knows, but for a few years it was a serious enough issue that Conservative MPs visiting Wales took extra security precautions.

People in Wales who genuinely want an independent Wales, and who want English people prevented from buying up properties that they can't afford, are really rather few in number. People in Scotland with the analogous aspirations are more numerous. You won't ever hear Sir Tom Jones go on the wireless and tell us that when the Six Nations comes around he supports whoever England are playing, but Sir Andrew Murray did once say that.

Mr Johnson is not stupid, so he will be very well aware that a Scotland that overwhelmingly didn't vote for him is going to be a problem. Yes, a Scottish UDI remains a preposterous idea and is highly unlikely to happen. But the election results suggest that nearly half of the Scottish population supports independence, and that is hugely higher than the proportion in Wales who do, or indeed the proportion in the Northern Ireland of the 1970s who wanted a transfer.

Peter Dow asserts that he intends to challenge Nicola Sturgeon for the leadership of the SNP. He probably won't actually do it, and he won't win even if he does, but is he the only Scot who advocates a socialist revolution and the assassination of the Queen? Probably not.
I'm begining to think my suggesion about daftness may be an overestimation.

 
Alexander Howard
1338825.  Mon Dec 16, 2019 7:54 am Reply with quote

Scotland must not be left out of new Boris prosperity revolution: it must became a really attractive place to do business, attracting investors and new residents. Two million new Lancastrians, Yorkshiremen and those of the swelling Midland counties filling the revitalised brownfield sites of the Central Belt and the coastal flagging communities should help immensely.

Sturgeon has said she is keen on freedom of movement, so to hear Glasgow filled with the earthy vowels of Yorkshire should be welcomed, just as the English Home Counties always feel better echoing with the richer sounds of the Scots here.

 
tetsabb
1338830.  Mon Dec 16, 2019 9:50 am Reply with quote

Quote:
prosperity revolution
?????

I suspect that soon we will be hearing the old joke about "How do you start a small business in Boris' Britain?"
'Begin with a big one"

 
Willie
1338840.  Mon Dec 16, 2019 2:43 pm Reply with quote

PDR wrote:
In the 1970s there was a BBC drama about a paramilitary Scottish separatist movement which I vaguely remember made people uneasy because the author hinted that it was based on the intentions of an internal "provisional wing" of the SNP.


If you mean Scotch on the Rocks, I would take it with a large pinch of salt that it was really the intentions of a 'provisional wing'of the SNP given that it was written by Douglas Hurd, though Alex Salmond is on record as saying it was one of his favourite books.

I do keep hearing the argument that as the SNP only got 45% of the vote in Scotland they have no mandate for a new referendum, though funnily enough this is by the same people that say the Tories have all the mandate they need for everything on a lower percentage of the vote.

The Tories ran a campaign in Scotland saying they were the party to support if you wanted to remain part of the UK (on every single pamphlet they produced up here) and they lost half their seats.

 
Leith
1338846.  Mon Dec 16, 2019 3:57 pm Reply with quote

PDR wrote:
Leith wrote:
Ask Denmark, Norway, Finland or Ireland - all similarly sized countries to Scotland, all currently with comparable or better standards of living and GDP per capita than the UK.


I take your point, but I also remember that when Alec Salmond put together his economic prospectus for IndyRef1 it was based on an international oil price of something like $130/barrel. This was optimistic even then, and over the intervening years a natural level for the oil price seems to settle around $60-$70, which would have given Scotchville a significant budget deficit problem. He also had some strange ideas that England would continue building RN ships in a foreign country, and would want to relocate her surface fleet to Scottish ports to make up the revenue lost when he kicked the submarines out.

I accept that there may well be a viable economic model for an independent Scotland, but I have yet to see it laid out, and I'd be surprised if it could afford headline features like free degrees and prescriptions.

PDR


It's difficult to make precise comparisons between Scotland's economy now and how it might ultimately fare as an independant state, even without considering oil price fluctuations. The GDP per capita figures I'd been briefly perusing were the IMF 2019 projections and the OECD 2016 figures, as summarised on Wikipedia:
- IMF 2019 - European States
- OECD 2016 - European Regions

In 2014, my sympathies were very much on the unionist side of the argument, both as an Anglo-Welsh Scot and as someone who, while seeing the idea of a Scandinavian-leaning Scotland appealing, was concerned that the result might more closely resemble a Latvia than a Sweden. I was relieved at the result, despite being frequently appalled at the tone and tactics of the 'No' campaign (which I suspect had a lot to do with the SNP's subsequent demolition of the Labour Party in Scotland).

Having looked at some actual numbers, it's now pretty clear that Scotland is very long way from being economically like Latvia, or even like Slovakia. I've also been exploring Ireland recently and been struck by the similarities with my country of birth.

There's no doubt that for Scotland to reach its full potential as an independant state would not be easy, and I imagine it would likely require a long-term realignment of its economy, with significant short term pain, not least in relation to issues like currency and Faslane. I doubt many are expecting the emergence of a Nordic utopia on day one (or I hope not, at least).

But the long term is where Scotland will have to look now, if it wants an alternative vision to five, ten or more years of a government whose outlook and interests have proven so wildly at odds with those of the Scottish electorate.

I don't live in Scotland at the moment, and haven't for some time, so my feelings on the matter may be less pertinent that those of the current residents, but I wonder how many might be taking a similar view now.

 
barbados
1338871.  Tue Dec 17, 2019 1:43 am Reply with quote

Leith wrote:


It's difficult to make precise comparisons between Scotland's economy now and how it might ultimately fare as an independant state,

How is it possible to accurately compare the economy of the UK pre and post Brexit, but not Scotlandís pre and post UKexit?

 
Alexander Howard
1338878.  Tue Dec 17, 2019 2:38 am Reply with quote

Then there is Yorkshire - a fine country with a flag and identity of its own, great cities and beautiful countryside - and a population about equal to that of Scotland.

All together now with the proud national anthem:

Wheear 'as ta bin sin ah saw thee,
On Ilkla Moor baht 'at?
Ö

 
suze
1338891.  Tue Dec 17, 2019 12:24 pm Reply with quote

suze wrote:
Mr Johnson has made a respectable start on this.


That is what I said on Friday. Do his initial Cabinet appointments change it?

There is no change in the Great Offices, and I don't think many were expecting any. Is there any obvious reason why Stephen Barclay has been kept on as SSExEU - a post which is expected to be abolished within months in any case - when everyone knows that Mr Johnson isn't impressed with Mr Barclay and de facto Michael Gove does the job?

Jacob Rees-Mogg has kept the job of Leader of the House of Commons. If Mr Johnson is serious about wanting to appeal to the whole country and not just to rural millionaires, is JRM's presence at the Cabinet table helpful?

Nicky "I won't serve in a Johnson cabinet" Morgan left the House of Commons at the election, but is to be elevated to the House of Lords so that she can continue to, erm, serve in a Johnson cabinet. In even more exciting news for the concept of needing to be elected, Frank "Zac" Goldsmith too is to be elevated despite losing his seat. Does the appointment to the Cabinet of sycophants who didn't bother with the tiresome "getting elected" bit send the right message?

The newly appointed Secretary of State for Wales, the previously little known Simon Hart, is English.

 
barbados
1338900.  Tue Dec 17, 2019 3:02 pm Reply with quote

suze wrote:
suze wrote:
Mr Johnson has made a respectable start on this.


That is what I said on Friday. Do his initial Cabinet appointments change it?

There is no change in the Great Offices, and I don't think many were expecting any. Is there any obvious reason why Stephen Barclay has been kept on as SSExEU - a post which is expected to be abolished within months in any case - when everyone knows that Mr Johnson isn't impressed with Mr Barclay and de facto Michael Gove does the job?

Jacob Rees-Mogg has kept the job of Leader of the House of Commons. If Mr Johnson is serious about wanting to appeal to the whole country and not just to rural millionaires, is JRM's presence at the Cabinet table helpful?

Nicky "I won't serve in a Johnson cabinet" Morgan left the House of Commons at the election, but is to be elevated to the House of Lords so that she can continue to, erm, serve in a Johnson cabinet. In even more exciting news for the concept of needing to be elected, Frank "Zac" Goldsmith too is to be elevated despite losing his seat. Does the appointment to the Cabinet of sycophants who didn't bother with the tiresome "getting elected" bit send the right message?

The newly appointed Secretary of State for Wales, the previously little known Simon Hart, is English.

Is that Simon Hart, the honourable member for Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire?

 
suze
1338905.  Tue Dec 17, 2019 5:33 pm Reply with quote

Yes, that's the fellow. Born in Wolverhampton, educated at Radley and Cirencester, does not speak Welsh, and is MP for Little England Beyond Wales.

 
Celebaelin
1339016.  Thu Dec 19, 2019 2:52 pm Reply with quote

I won't bother repeating any of my personal views - what I will do is post something pompous that I've taken a little while to construct.

Current UK political choices do not necessarily imply a lack of sincerity; until recently broadly egocentric ideas have persisted in the elected body suggesting that authoritarian preference is more important than public will. Perhaps it is now established that any opposition to the outcome of a proffered democratic choice is as antithetical to the intent of a canvass of the national will as it is dubious that the notion holds that truth equates with beauty, or beauty with truth, as identical concepts preordained by some incompletely understood cosmic order.

So be it.

The troublesome events of recent history do not necessarily suggest a lack of comprehension; at least not automatically. A narcissistic idea persists that personal preference born of an assumed superior understanding should hold sway over mass conviction. That line of thinking has corroded the validity of our democracy of late and one must conclude that the result of the election is in major part a response by the general public to the flaunting of the will of the electorate.

<E> 6am -ish; trying to clarify; writing coherently can be a real challenge sometimes.


Last edited by Celebaelin on Fri Dec 20, 2019 10:56 am; edited 1 time in total

 
Alexander Howard
1339054.  Fri Dec 20, 2019 4:53 am Reply with quote

Celebaelin wrote:
<E> 6am -ish; trying to clarify; writing coherently can be a real challenge sometimes.


I shouldn't worry - it reads well and reasons well.

I have become increasingly aghast that differences of political and social opinion or emphasis are no longer accepted. One person with an idea becomes so convinced that it is the whole, unarguable truth that anyone differing from it must be a fool, a liar or in the pay of a malevolent force.

To think outside your own certainties will upset your certainties and your carefully constructed ideomythology, which strikes to the heart of being. However even I am not right about everything (probably).

 
Celebaelin
1339077.  Fri Dec 20, 2019 10:51 am Reply with quote

Alexander Howard wrote:
Celebaelin wrote:
<E> 6am -ish; trying to clarify; writing coherently can be a real challenge sometimes.

I shouldn't worry - it reads well and reasons well.

Thank you for that reassurance but I'm still fussing over it so I will allow myself one more edit before I acknowledge that I've done all that reasonable amounts of diligence permit.

 
tetsabb
1339878.  Sun Dec 29, 2019 7:35 pm Reply with quote

Apropos of a certain knighthood, poet Attila the Stockbroker penned this

Quote:
When a knight won his spurs in the stories of old
He was gentle and brave, he was gallant and bold
The Tories just threw out that comforting myth -
Heís a heartless, cold bastard called Iain Duncan Smith

 

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