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May calls a snap election

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PDR
1234537.  Tue Apr 18, 2017 5:34 am Reply with quote

No sure how, given the lack of a confidence vote, but presumably that will unfold over the next few hours.

Corbyn is clearly going to be an electoral liability, so perhaps it's time to form the "Cancel Brexit Party" and field 600 candidates...

PDR

 
PDR
1234539.  Tue Apr 18, 2017 5:52 am Reply with quote

OK, so I've looked it up and she can have her election if she can get 2/3rds of the commons (an absolute 2/3rds - including absentees, anstentions and vacant seats).

So she needs at least *some* Labour support for this - to get over the threshold she needs at least 104 non-tory MPs to vote with her.

PDR

 
barbados
1234541.  Tue Apr 18, 2017 5:55 am Reply with quote

I think I have made my thoughts clear on this since the leadership election, and I'm still not convinced it is the best thing to do considering how much is going on at the moment. All it will do is confirm is one thing, and we already know that.
Fortunately nothing will really be happening until later in the year anyway, and with any luck it will give some form of opposition from a party with more than 59 seats. I just can't see Corbyn stepping aside though.

 
dr.bob
1234568.  Tue Apr 18, 2017 9:07 am Reply with quote

It's an interesting situation. I imagine a lot of Labour MPs will not be looking forward to the election if the polls are right* since their party will crash and burn. At the same time, other Labour MPs will probably welcome a bad election result as a genuine reason to demand Corbyn's resignation.

Lots of news outlets have said that Mrs May is struggling a little with such a small majority since it means a few awkward backbenchers can cause real difficulty. Does this mean that some awkward backbenchers are not looking forward to an increased majority for their party since it will result in them personally having less power?

As for getting non-tory MPs to vote with her, apparently Jeremy Corbyn has long stated that he would support a snap election, and the BBC are reporting him as saying he welcomes the PMs decision, so that shouldn't be a problem.


*Of course, these days that's a pretty massive "if".

 
PDR
1234570.  Tue Apr 18, 2017 9:13 am Reply with quote

dr.bob wrote:

As for getting non-tory MPs to vote with her, apparently Jeremy Corbyn has long stated that he would support a snap election, and the BBC are reporting him as saying he welcomes the PMs decision, so that shouldn't be a problem.


Yes, I called that one wrong. Corbyn's announcement hadn't made the press when I typed, and I haven't been overly inter4ested in keeping abreast of his views recently.

So turkeys DO vote for Xmas...

:0)

PDR

 
RLDavies
1234585.  Tue Apr 18, 2017 10:58 am Reply with quote

dr.bob wrote:
It's an interesting situation. I imagine a lot of Labour MPs will not be looking forward to the election if the polls are right* since their party will crash and burn. At the same time, other Labour MPs will probably welcome a bad election result as a genuine reason to demand Corbyn's resignation.

Today's Guido Fawkes analysis, saying more or less this.

https://order-order.com/2017/04/18/what-the-election-means-for-labour/

 
suze
1234589.  Tue Apr 18, 2017 11:13 am Reply with quote

PDR wrote:
Corbyn is clearly going to be an electoral liability, so perhaps it's time to form the "Cancel Brexit Party" and field 600 candidates.


I doubt there's enough time for that, which is unfortunate.

This general election campaign will be brief, which is a good thing. Will it also be rather boring? Mrs May has let it be known that she will not take part in any debates, and I doubt that the broadcasters would dare to arrange them and then empty-chair her. (In principle I quite like them. The downside was that Farage was absolutely miles better at them than any other party leader - and now that he is no longer a party leader, we're probably not missing much by not having them.)

Mrs May is signaling that the Conservative manifesto will also be rather brief. It's reported that she privately considered Mr Cameron's manifesto for 2015 ridiculously long, and she must somehow now convince the world that all its undelivered promises are nothing to do with her, but she will be making many fewer pledges this time around. Will no tax rises, ever, continue to be party policy? Will foxhunting be left out this time? Will grammar schools be in? These and other questions will be answered at some point in the coming weeks, but my predictions are no, yes, and yes respectively.

All we all need to do then is decide who to vote for ...

 
PDR
1234591.  Tue Apr 18, 2017 11:17 am Reply with quote

I vote for Tony Blair.

PDR

 
barbados
1234592.  Tue Apr 18, 2017 11:19 am Reply with quote

PDR wrote:
I vote for Tony Blair.

PDR

In which case you are a fool ;)

 
PDR
1234593.  Tue Apr 18, 2017 11:26 am Reply with quote

Or perhaps the only wise man in the room...

:0)

PDR

 
barbados
1234595.  Tue Apr 18, 2017 11:31 am Reply with quote

Ah the old double bluff.

Funnily enough I've just checked my Facebook feed and it is full of people complaining about the snap election, not that I have an opinion either way, but the people now complaining are the same ones that have spent the last 9 months complaining that she hasn't called an election

 
PDR
1234598.  Tue Apr 18, 2017 11:36 am Reply with quote

Get some different people in your facebook feed?

PDR

 
suze
1234602.  Tue Apr 18, 2017 11:47 am Reply with quote

No one on my Facebook feed is complaining about the fact of there being an election, much as few are especially optimistic that they're going to like the result.

One MP - a Labour MP with a small majority - apparently intends to vote against the government's plan to hold an election, but no party will be whipping its MPs to do so.

Neither Tony Blair nor anyone very much like him is the leader of a party this time around, and already I know quite a few people who are having an internal debate on how to vote. I imagine that PDR is among those people. So am I, and so - for rather different reasons - is my stepdaughter.

If Tony Blair as of 1997 were currently Labour leader, Labour would win this election by an absolute street - and therefore it wouldn't be happening. But the actual Labour leader is Mr Corbyn, who I'm struggling to support. Meanwhile, my stepdaughter has usually voted Conservative, but she's struggling with that because she's not convinced that people who voted Remain are still welcome to vote Conservative.

 
PDR
1234605.  Tue Apr 18, 2017 12:22 pm Reply with quote

I'm surprised that no one has said:

"We had an election in 2015 - why do we need a second one? The people spoke in 2015 and a second election will just be an anti-democratic attempt to defy the people by the <insert hate target of choice> Elite"

My prediction (FWIW) is that this will be an election of protest votes, and so there is a small chance it could produce an off-the-wall outcome. WHilst the most likely outcome will return St. Theresa with an increased majority, the dice may (DYSWIDT?) fall differently, and if they do...

I predict that very few of the normal Labour voters will vote for Corbyn - those who support brexit will probably vote tory or UKIP while those who oppose it will probably vote Lib Dem.

I suspect the Tory brexiters will vote tory, but their remainers will probably vote Lib Dem as well.

I predict that few of the "2010 era" Lib-Dem voters will vote Lib Dem unless Farron can really divorce himself from the Clegg legacy. So of this group I suspect the brexiters will mostly vote Labour, but the remainers will be split between actually voting Lib Dem and voting for minor parties like the Greens.

The net result could be interesting - if Farron does manage to convince people to forgive them for the coalition then he could actually win this election on the back of "labour" protest votes, which would be fun. But even if he doesn't he'd be heading a much larger party, and the Labour party would be unlikely to be the official opposition (in fact most of its votes would have come from disaffected liberals).

Meanwhile the UKIP voters will probably vote Tory, since there is essentially no UKIP to vote for any more.

At least that's what I thought afyer I had taken my green pills...

PDR

 
tetsabb
1234608.  Tue Apr 18, 2017 12:39 pm Reply with quote

Apparently a journo was interviewing a woman about something else, and told her live on-air about the new election being called.
Her response was, "Oh no, not another one"
I have some sympathy for her.

 

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