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Le long, long chemin vers l'Élysée

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Leith
1235516.  Wed Apr 26, 2017 1:29 pm Reply with quote

I only have a summary view of the various candidates policies, but it seems to me that there may be a fair few of Mélenchon's supporters who find Le Pen's economic and foreign policies far more palatable than Macron's globalist neoliberalism. Last I heard, Mélenchon was alone among the former frontrunners in refusing to endorse Macron.

The hard-up 'global free trade isn't working for me' contingent, who seemed so influential in the votes for Trump and for Brexit, are unlikely to favour Macron, I imagine.

I suppose Le Pen may also find some support among the right-hand fringes of Fillion's supporters.

Hopefully (from my point of view as an immigrant in France) that won't be sufficient to prevent Macron's victory, but I don't feel this is a foregone conclusion by any means.

 
brunel
1235518.  Wed Apr 26, 2017 2:16 pm Reply with quote

Leith wrote:
I only have a summary view of the various candidates policies, but it seems to me that there may be a fair few of Mélenchon's supporters who find Le Pen's economic and foreign policies far more palatable than Macron's globalist neoliberalism. Last I heard, Mélenchon was alone among the former frontrunners in refusing to endorse Macron.

The hard-up 'global free trade isn't working for me' contingent, who seemed so influential in the votes for Trump and for Brexit, are unlikely to favour Macron, I imagine.

I suppose Le Pen may also find some support among the right-hand fringes of Fillion's supporters.

Hopefully (from my point of view as an immigrant in France) that won't be sufficient to prevent Macron's victory, but I don't feel this is a foregone conclusion by any means.

Whilst Mélenchon is currently not endorsing any candidates, it is notable that his party has been polling its representatives with a poll that is asking whether they will either back Macron, spoil their vote or abstain. It does imply that whilst Mélenchon may be rather critical of Macron, at the same time it seems that he considers him a lesser evil than Le Pen overall.

That said, whilst it may not be over, at the same time it would require a sizeable reversal in the polls - whilst there may be some uncertainty when the margins are tight, currently Macron's poll lead is in the order of 20%.

 
dr.bob
1235633.  Fri Apr 28, 2017 4:38 am Reply with quote

Leith wrote:
I only have a summary view of the various candidates policies, but it seems to me that there may be a fair few of Mélenchon's supporters who find Le Pen's economic and foreign policies far more palatable than Macron's globalist neoliberalism. Last I heard, Mélenchon was alone among the former frontrunners in refusing to endorse Macron.


Mélenchon is a very left-wing candidate, so his followers will tend to be have a similar outlook, you would imagine. I'm certain that some left-wingers will be prepared to vote for a right-wing candidate, in the same way that we've seen lots of traditional Labour voters in this country voting for UKIP.

That would boost Le Pen's numbers a bit, but I'd be surprised if it was enough to overturn the lead that Macron already has, not to mention the votes he'll receive from the other major figures who are urging an "anybody except Le Pen" vote.

 
Alexander Howard
1235664.  Fri Apr 28, 2017 9:08 am Reply with quote

dr.bob wrote:
Mélenchon is a very left-wing candidate, so his followers will tend to be have a similar outlook, you would imagine. I'm certain that some left-wingers will be prepared to vote for a right-wing candidate, in the same way that we've seen lots of traditional Labour voters in this country voting for UKIP.


What though do 'left' and 'right' mean in this context, or to you? Le Pen (in contrast to her father) proposes massive socialistic intervention in the economy, which is far-left-wing by my reckoning. She is a socialist, and a nationalist. Put the two together...

 
franticllama
1235726.  Sat Apr 29, 2017 3:43 am Reply with quote

I've always agreed with my history teacher when it comes to the political spectrum. It's not really a straight line with the communists on one end and the fascists a couple of miles down the road at the other end. It's more of a gentle horse shoe shape so that the commies and the fascists end up only a few meters apart - certainly close enough for some to jump ship from one end of the horse shoe to the other provided they're there for than just the name calling.

 
tetsabb
1235732.  Sat Apr 29, 2017 5:16 am Reply with quote

frantic, this misses out the anarchists, who can include a right mishmash of folk who on one side have gravitated rightwards from the extreme libertarian, individual freedom adherents, to those from an extreme lefty position, such as the peasants in The Holy Grail.

We.... sorry, I mean they make the circle complete.

 
franticllama
1235738.  Sat Apr 29, 2017 5:23 am Reply with quote

ah, my profuse apologies Tets. You are, of course, correct.
And so we have a happy circle of politics

 
dr.bob
1235907.  Mon May 01, 2017 8:37 am Reply with quote

An interesting point I heard on the radio the other day which made the point that, in the French election, "left-wing" and "right-wing" are less important than "pro-globalisation" and "anti-globalisation." I wonder if more politics will start to move in this way as the landscape continues to change.

 
Leith
1236343.  Fri May 05, 2017 1:18 pm Reply with quote

Brunel - thanks for the poll figures. They give me some reassurance, though I shall remain somewhat anxious until the results are in.

Dr. Bob - I think you're edging towards the view I see from here.
If you look at their policies, neither Macron nor Le Pen is easy to describe in terms of the old "left-wing" / "right-wing" stereotypes.

Macron has much in common with Tony Blair, whom few regard as a socialist. As Mr Howard points out, Le Pen's economic policies are far to the left of his in many ways. In traditional terms, this is in stark contrast to their views on rights and immigration (Macron liberal, Le Pen ultra conservative).

I'd say the pro and anti-globalisation dichotomy was already a very big issue in the EU referendum and US elections. I couldn't help but be struck by reversal of the historically left-wing parties championing the cause of the free market, while the calls for a return to protectionism came from the hard right. It's no wonder Jeremy Corbyn's old left heritage leaves him so at odds with the current political landscape.

I think, if nothing else, these recent evolutions will force us to be less one-dimensional in our categorisation of political movements.

 
Jenny
1236405.  Sat May 06, 2017 12:50 pm Reply with quote

Interesting thoughts there.

 
Leith
1236495.  Sun May 07, 2017 1:27 pm Reply with quote

Well that appears to be settled, and satisfactorily as far as I'm concerned.
Just watching Marine Le Pen's concession speech. I don't have enough French to follow in detail yet, but I she appears fairly upbeat about the prospect of leading the opposition against Macron.

 
Alexander Howard
1236514.  Sun May 07, 2017 3:24 pm Reply with quote

Le Pen said, echoing dr bob's observation, that the division in politics is now between "patriots and globalists". Why one cannot be a patriot with a global outlook was not explained.

 
barbados
1236566.  Mon May 08, 2017 7:08 am Reply with quote

Two very odd statements on the bbc lunchtime news.
He was at L'Arc de Triomphe where it was pointed out that he was the youngest leader in France since Napolean, and the location is where Napolean's battles were remembered - odd name for it because didn't he lose?
The other was he was the key leader in the EU - I wonder what Merkel has to say about that?

 
Alfred E Neuman
1236579.  Mon May 08, 2017 7:48 am Reply with quote

barbados wrote:
Two very odd statements on the bbc lunchtime news.
He was at L'Arc de Triomphe where it was pointed out that he was the youngest leader in France since Napolean, and the location is where Napolean's battles were remembered - odd name for it because didn't he lose?


Napoleon's battles or Napoleon's victories? I don't speak French, but going by the name of the thing, it's the latter not the former. And yes he did lose - he lost 7 battles out of 60 (according to Wiki), which isn't a bad record.

 
barbados
1236581.  Mon May 08, 2017 8:11 am Reply with quote

It was a tongue in cheek comment from an English person, about a news article on the BBC news Alfred ;)

 

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