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Who won the war of 1812?

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PDR
1190548.  Tue May 03, 2016 5:59 pm Reply with quote

Now that's reminded me of something interesting. Sunday morning on Radio 4 (IIRC in the "Broacasting House" programme) they interviewed a guy who apparently called every single state correctly in the last two US presidential elections. He was a numbers man rather than a political analyst - he just worked with the data.

His prediction for this year was that if it comes to a Trumpy McTrumpface vs Clinton campaign she will win by around 3:1 because the trumper has upset too many women and persons of non-caucasiety. But if it's Clinton vs the other guy it will resemble the recent "nearly hung" elections and be too close to call.

PDR

 
Jenny
1190749.  Wed May 04, 2016 1:50 pm Reply with quote

My first husband went to university much against his father's will (dad was a painter and decorator and wanted his only child to go into the business). Consequently, my former pa-in-law refused to support his son financially. This was of course in the days of student grants, and in the first year it was not that difficult, because grants were allocated on the basis of parental income and his dad had had a bad year the previous year, so Rich got a full grant and just about made it through the year. The following year, though, his dad had had a good year, so in his second year the grant dropped to the minimum, which was just enough to cover hall fees and nothing more for things like transport or lunch or books.

He made most of his additional income that year from playing bridge. He was lucky enough to have a friend who was a rather wealthy Kuwaiti guy, Vijay, who liked to play bridge but was a terrible player. Rich was a pretty good player, so Vijay asked him to be his partner and they struck a deal whereby if they won Rich kept his share of the winnings, but if they lost Vijay would stand the losses (I might add that this guy had been given a toy factory or something like that for his twentyfirst birthday, and drove a rather expensive sports car, so money wasn't an issue for him). They didn't win often, but because they played for absurdly high stakes, when they did win it was enough to keep Rich in lunches and bus fares for a while.

After that year, his grant improved a little and his mother went out and got a part-time job for the first time in her entire married life and sent him the odd 5 (worth a lot more in 1968/9 than it is now of course) so he stopped gambling altogether, saying it was far too stressful as a source of income.

 
suze
1190777.  Wed May 04, 2016 5:20 pm Reply with quote

As a source of income, I'm sure it would be.

But for most people who bet on (for instance) horses, it is no more nor less than a hobby. Sure, it's a hobby that usually costs money - but then so do most hobbies. If some guy with a mundane industrial job chooses to spend his Saturday afternoons in Ladbroke's and this hobby costs him (say) 3% of his income, that's not really any different than his boss spending 3% of his income on playing golf.


We're not planning to bet on this, not least because the odds available are prohibitive, but it now looks almost certain that the US election will indeed be between Trumpy McTrumpface and Mrs Rodham Clinton.

I have little doubt that Mrs Clinton will win it, since McTrumpface quite simply cannot win in the states that matter. The vote count will not be 3:1 or anything like - the winner has never recorded even twice the number of popular votes of the loser - but the electoral college result easily might be. Such a comprehensive result last occurred in 1988.

 
PDR
1190778.  Wed May 04, 2016 5:30 pm Reply with quote

suze wrote:
The vote count will not be 3:1 or anything like - the winner has never recorded even twice the number of popular votes of the loser - but the electoral college result easily might be.


Thinking about it that's probably what the chap on the radio said, and I mentally changed it to "votes" rather than "delegates", because I'm an idiot (as you know).

PDR

 
Alfred E Neuman
1190799.  Thu May 05, 2016 3:00 am Reply with quote

suze wrote:
I have little doubt that Mrs Clinton will win it, since McTrumpface quite simply cannot win in the states that matter.


The Republican Party must be wondering how they got to this point - a candidate who is out of control and who is destroying their credibility.

 
PDR
1190808.  Thu May 05, 2016 4:10 am Reply with quote

Something they probably have in common with the majority of the British Labour Party.

PDR

 
tetsabb
1190817.  Thu May 05, 2016 5:16 am Reply with quote

I think that 59% of the electorate counts as a majority.

 
PDR
1190911.  Fri May 06, 2016 2:36 am Reply with quote

Perhaps, but it's really done the trick in scotchville, hasn't it...

PDR

 
suze
1191024.  Fri May 06, 2016 11:15 am Reply with quote

Seems to be working in London. The result of the mayoral election isn't expected until later this evening, but all the commentors are pretty sure that Sadiq Khan has won it.

London has a bigger population than Scotland, and in any case Scotland is north of Watford. Why would you care about it?

 
Jaster
1191155.  Sat May 07, 2016 11:33 am Reply with quote

Scotsville is a special case, the main party is actually Labour without the Westminster effect, and especially without the Blairite new labour MPs that the Scots particularly hated

 
dr.bob
1192242.  Tue May 17, 2016 4:58 am Reply with quote

Jaster wrote:
Scotsville is a special case, the main party is actually Labour


I suspect Jaster hasn't been north of the border for a few years :-D

 
PDR
1192243.  Tue May 17, 2016 5:01 am Reply with quote

Well I'm goint to be in Edinburgh for a few days next month, so I'll ask around and let him know...

:0)

PDR

 
PDR
1192258.  Tue May 17, 2016 7:18 am Reply with quote

Actually now I think about it we're up there later in the year as well, because we're heading up for a few days of the Fringe again.

Much more of this and I may have to start paying scotch taxes...

:0(

PDR

 
dr.bob
1192459.  Thu May 19, 2016 4:22 am Reply with quote

No need to worry. I can handle those for you, if you like.

Just give me a blank cheque, and I'll do all the hard sums and fill in the correct amount you owe.

Probably best to make the cheque out to the Caledonian Agency for Security and Haggises.

Or you can just use the commonly used acronym...

 
PDR
1192467.  Thu May 19, 2016 5:37 am Reply with quote

Indeed. I've acted as a clearing house for cheque donations to the Campaign Against Sexist Hoteliers for much the same reasons for many years.

But I really wouldn't want to put you to that much trouble, Doc.

PDR

 

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