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Brexit (the EU Referendum debate)

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dr.bob
1178549.  Mon Feb 22, 2016 7:31 am Reply with quote

AlmondFacialBar wrote:
But if the UK votes in, Cameron will stay and Boris won't be mayor of London for much longer either.


By the time the people speak, Boris won't be Mayor of London anymore, since there's an election to pick a new one on 5th May.

 
PDR
1178550.  Mon Feb 22, 2016 7:38 am Reply with quote

AlmondFacialBar wrote:
Admittedly, most people I know in the UK probably aren't representative of anything much, so you may well have a point there. Mind - re Boris I'm pretty much exclusively talking about inside the M25, where a lot of jobs do actually profit from EU membership, no?


Maybe, but I'm not exactly a long way away from that locale myself...

As I said, I'm of the "in" camp as a result of an alaylical and objective review of the concept and consequences, but I absolutely get the emotive and subjective disdain for the EU's secretive, self-protecting, unaccountable, heavy-handed, intrusive, directive and (in many cases) downright criminal way of doing business that is largely driving the thinking element of the "out" camp. I can understand it of the French and the Italians, but I'm at a loss to understand how the Germans have tolerated the corruption and poor financial accountability that is so deeply embedded in so many of the EU's structures for so long.

I suspect there is a deep fear of a domino effect should the UK leave there may well be other disillusioned populations who would look to follow suit.

PDR

 
barbados
1178557.  Mon Feb 22, 2016 7:57 am Reply with quote

I think the Boris Out side will actually bring what is missing from the table, some intelligent conversation. It would seem from the comments made by him in various media outlets that his desire is not really "out" but more of an "in on the right terms" which is probably where most of the Brexit team sit.
Even Farage seems to sway towards closer trade with less close politics when pressed.

 
crissdee
1178570.  Mon Feb 22, 2016 9:08 am Reply with quote

The paper today says that the bookies are now giving 2/1 on a "Brexit" since Bojo made his announcement. FWIW, I do have a bit of a soft spot for Bojo, he may be a buffoon (or play at being one) but I think his heart is in the right place.

 
tetsabb
1178592.  Mon Feb 22, 2016 12:33 pm Reply with quote

He is definitely not a buffoon, but a sharp political operator.

 
suze
1178595.  Mon Feb 22, 2016 12:41 pm Reply with quote

I would agree with AFB that City types are fools unto themselves if they vote for OUT. But we have to remember that Nigel Farage was a City type before he became a full time politician, and he's a bit of a hero-worship figure among a certain kind of City type.

We also have to remember that an awful lot of people are fools unto themselves. Kent ought to be the most pro-EU county in the whole of England - but it's Nigel's home turf, and it's UKIP's strongest county by a mile.


Scotland will undoubtedly vote IN, and the Lesser Number in Northern Ireland will undoubtedly vote IN. (The DUP is advising the Greater Number to vote OUT, but then they probably want two hundred miles of barbed wire across the land border - as would have to happen if Britain were to leave.)

The English shires may well vote narrowly for OUT, but I still think that IN will win by something like 55:45. That may sound like a narrow margin, but it's probably a seven digit difference in the number of votes.

At least, it is if the turnout is anything like. I'm praying that the turnout isn't 9%, as it was when Mark Reckless held a pretend referendum in Rochester and Strood shortly before he changed sides. Despite that turnout of 9%, Mr Reckless went banging on about how he had "proved" that the "vast majority" of his constituents wanted out.

 
brunel
1178612.  Mon Feb 22, 2016 2:04 pm Reply with quote

suze wrote:
I would agree with AFB that City types are fools unto themselves if they vote for OUT. But we have to remember that Nigel Farage was a City type before he became a full time politician, and he's a bit of a hero-worship figure among a certain kind of City type.

Whilst there may be those who might hold Farage in higher esteem, the Financial Times has reported that the general consensus amongst the larger corporations in the UK is leaning strongly towards voting for in (close to 80% in favour of in).

Reuters has also reported a similar trend amongst City workers and amongst larger corporations based in London - again, the vote seems to be strongly weighted towards "in". Generally, it is the small to medium enterprises that predominantly cater to the UK market that show the greatest hostility to the EU - Farage is something of an exception to the norm given the City of London has generally been quite amenable to the EU.

 
Efros
1178615.  Mon Feb 22, 2016 2:21 pm Reply with quote

brunel wrote:
Farage is something of an exception to the norm


One way to put it! :)

 
Bondee
1178635.  Mon Feb 22, 2016 4:33 pm Reply with quote

Earlier today on Twitter, former member of this parish (Tubeway) AndyMcH wrote:
Is there a site that shows people facts about the difference between leaving the EU and staying in, rather than speculation?


Would any of you fine folk be aware of such a thing?

 
suze
1178664.  Mon Feb 22, 2016 6:15 pm Reply with quote

Unfortunately, there isn't really one. There are two main reasons for that.

1. No one actually knows what will happen.

Both sides are making assumptions about the future which are, for the most part, at least plausible - but until we actually leave or don't, we simply don't know whether they will prove true.

2. Most of the print media favour one side or the other.

The Daily Mirror and Guardian are firmly on the side of IN. The Daily Express, Daily Mail, Sun, and Times are firmly on the side of OUT. The Daily Star is more interested in tits, as usual.

The Daily Telegraph is hedging a bit, presumably because the retired colonels who form half of its readership tend to one view and the City types who form the other half tend to the other. All the same, my guess is that its editorial on the day of the referendum will go for OUT.

By the time of the referendum the Independent will only exist as a website, but it's veering towards IN at the moment.

The BBC is probably Mr McH's best bet, but - as usual - both sides will allege that it's supporting the other.

 
crissdee
1178665.  Mon Feb 22, 2016 6:27 pm Reply with quote

Bondee wrote:
Earlier today on Twitter, former member of this parish (Tubeway) AndyMcH wrote:
Is there a site that shows people facts about the difference between leaving the EU and staying in, rather than speculation?


Would any of you fine folk be aware of such a thing?


Can't help/don't know, but if you're tweeting him, give him my regards. Happy memories of my first ever meet up on the south bank.

 
Zziggy
1178669.  Mon Feb 22, 2016 6:51 pm Reply with quote

An opinion from Boris ...

 
Zziggy
1178671.  Mon Feb 22, 2016 6:51 pm Reply with quote

So anyway ... why do people want to leave?

 
Efros
1178673.  Mon Feb 22, 2016 6:53 pm Reply with quote

Well to quote my Uncle, who is somewhat capricious in his political viewpoints

"My one abiding dream is to tell the Germans and the French to go and metaphorically stuff themselves! The other criteria can be argued over at a later date."

 
Zziggy
1178675.  Mon Feb 22, 2016 6:58 pm Reply with quote

Hmm, that's more or less what I thought ...

 

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