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Chances of expectant mothers giving birth on same date - P94

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smoky
1168422.  Sat Jan 09, 2016 10:13 am Reply with quote

In the book, the chances of two expectant mothers giving birth on the same date is over-estimated as 1 in 200. The reference you give - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-31046144 - actually gives a much more reasonable estimate of 1 in 30.

 
Jenny
1168437.  Sat Jan 09, 2016 11:38 am Reply with quote

Hi smoky and welcome to the forums.

As I'm understanding it, the question is whether two pregnant women who have been given the same due date according to normal calculations will actually deliver on the same predicted date.

Your linked article says:

Quote:
What, then, are the chances of Penelope's and Eleanor's babies both being born on 4 April?

Only 4.4% of 4.4%, or 0.2%. That's a probability of one in 500.


However, if you look at their chances of delivering on the same day but not necessarily the predicted date, then the link says:

Quote:
The chance that their children will be born on the same day - any day, not necessarily 4 April - is higher. It's about one in 30.


So I guess it depends on how the fact is actually worded in the book - whether it's the same predicted day or the same actual day.

 

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