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The Race To '24. Will Trump be out of gaol by then?

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Who will win?
Jeb!
4%
 4%  [ 1 ]
Hillary
20%
 20%  [ 5 ]
Trump
16%
 16%  [ 4 ]
Sanders
20%
 20%  [ 5 ]
Chafee
0%
 0%  [ 0 ]
Webb
0%
 0%  [ 0 ]
Cruz
0%
 0%  [ 0 ]
Huckabee
4%
 4%  [ 1 ]
Who Cares!
36%
 36%  [ 9 ]
Total Votes : 25

CB27
1383047.  Fri Jun 11, 2021 1:31 pm Reply with quote

Brock wrote:
The level of influence he has over the Republican Party in the USA is irrelevant, because they're not in power.


Actually, the way U S Politics is structured with so much power to individual states, they very much are in power in many places and can restrict the Senate and the President to a complete standstill if they so wish unless we have an incredible landslide for the Democrats in 2022.

For all his faults, Boehner worked with the Democrats and Obama, but McConnell has proven he's nothing more than a puppet for Trump.

 
barbados
1383049.  Fri Jun 11, 2021 1:45 pm Reply with quote

CB27 wrote:

Especially since Covid started the idea you have be physically somewhere to have an influence is proven as false.


There is no incorrect answer to this, because it is purely an opinion What influence over the world leaders (not just the G7 ones) do you think Donald Trump has?

 
Brock
1383050.  Fri Jun 11, 2021 2:00 pm Reply with quote

CB27 wrote:
Brock wrote:
The level of influence he has over the Republican Party in the USA is irrelevant, because they're not in power.


Actually, the way U S Politics is structured with so much power to individual states, they very much are in power in many places and can restrict the Senate and the President to a complete standstill if they so wish unless we have an incredible landslide for the Democrats in 2022.


We have devolution in the UK. The SNP is in power in Scotland, and the Labour Party is in power in Wales. That doesn't change the fact that the UK has a Conservative government and that the Conservatives represent the UK in international negotiations.

The same is true in the US. The Democrats are in power at federal level and they represent the US in international negotiations. The fact that the Republicans control many US states doesn't change that - as far as I know.

 
Efros
1383051.  Fri Jun 11, 2021 2:11 pm Reply with quote

It doesn't change that but it will affect any legislation or agreements that have to be passed or ratified by congress. Although the Democrats have majorities in both the House and the Senate the Senate is banjanxed by the filibuster because there is a bunch of gibbering Trump Supporters/Phobics on the GQP side who will not pass a damn thing proposed by the Democrats. A democratic state left at the mercy of a craven minority who don't have the balls to stand up to their failed leader. The dems have to answer for shit too, especially two of them, namely Manchin and Sinema.

 
cornixt
1383053.  Fri Jun 11, 2021 3:17 pm Reply with quote

Even though Trump isn't in an elected position, he has massive influence on who gets nominated to represent the Republican party at all levels of government right now. Cheney was kicked out of her positions because of her opposition of Trump, Romney gets booed everywhere because of his. Loyalty counts more than ability or political values. If Trump decides that Luxemburg is a terrorist state, that is what the Republicans will be talking about and boycotting, no matter how nonsensical. Even Nigel Farage continues to parrot Trump's talking points and do little tasks for him.

 
Brock
1383054.  Fri Jun 11, 2021 3:17 pm Reply with quote

OK, thanks. You must appreciate that US domestic politics is not heavily reported on in the UK any more. When Trump was in power, the British news media were obsessed with reporting his every last tweet, but when Biden took over they mostly lost interest. It's gone back to business as usual, with the media only reporting on events like the G7 with some international significance.

Strange, in a way, because Trump arguably had less influence over the UK than any other US President of my lifetime. I think he's the only one who hasn't dragged us into some sort of military action. In spite of all the noise he made, he turned out to be a total irrelevance to this country.

 
CB27
1383150.  Mon Jun 14, 2021 6:14 am Reply with quote

Brock wrote:
OK, thanks. You must appreciate that US domestic politics is not heavily reported on in the UK any more.

We're watching different news programmes and sites then.

Brock wrote:
Strange, in a way, because Trump arguably had less influence over the UK than any other US President of my lifetime. I think he's the only one who hasn't dragged us into some sort of military action. In spite of all the noise he made, he turned out to be a total irrelevance to this country.

So influence is all about military action abroad???

His policies that affected other countries include (and are not limited to):
Unilateral withdrawal from TPP without a backup agreement
Withdrawal from UNESCO
Unilateral withdrawal from the Iran deal
Withdrawal from the UNHRC
Withdrawal from the nuclear weapons agreement
Withdrawal from the Paris Accord
Withdrawal from the agreement on flights over sovereign military sites
Withdrawal from WHO

He created a build up of military tension with North Korea so that he could claim to have brokered a peace deal.
He created a trade war with China (which affects global trade and prices)
He continuously undermined NATO and other alliances, emboldening nations who oppose them.
His embrace of dictators and autocrats around the world has created and\or increased a new wave of tensions in many places around the world
And finally, his stance on Covid not only influenced other world leaders to not take it seriously, it encouraged many people around the world to listen to conspiracy theories that ultimately cost the lives of thousands of people, and damaged the health of thousands of others.

 
Brock
1383156.  Mon Jun 14, 2021 7:45 am Reply with quote

CB27 wrote:
Brock wrote:
OK, thanks. You must appreciate that US domestic politics is not heavily reported on in the UK any more.

We're watching different news programmes and sites then.


I'm not watching anything, since I don't have a TV. I get my news from a combination of BBC Radio 4, Times Radio, the Guardian website and the "i" newspaper. Generally, I've noticed a distinct reduction in the coverage of US domestic politics since Biden was elected. (Having said that, there's a good opinion piece by Ian Birrell in today's "i" entitled "Democracy is in danger in America", which covers many of the points made earlier in this thread.)

Quote:
Brock wrote:
Strange, in a way, because Trump arguably had less influence over the UK than any other US President of my lifetime. I think he's the only one who hasn't dragged us into some sort of military action. In spite of all the noise he made, he turned out to be a total irrelevance to this country.

So influence is all about military action abroad???


It's not all about military action, of course. But over the course of the last 50 years or so, the occupant of the White House has had more significant influence over UK government policy in the military sphere than in any other sphere. If Gore had won instead of Bush in 2000, we almost certainly wouldn't have had the second Gulf War.

Quote:
His policies that affected other countries include (and are not limited to):
Unilateral withdrawal from TPP without a backup agreement
Withdrawal from UNESCO
Unilateral withdrawal from the Iran deal
Withdrawal from the UNHRC
Withdrawal from the nuclear weapons agreement
Withdrawal from the Paris Accord
Withdrawal from the agreement on flights over sovereign military sites
Withdrawal from WHO

He created a build up of military tension with North Korea so that he could claim to have brokered a peace deal.
He created a trade war with China (which affects global trade and prices)
He continuously undermined NATO and other alliances, emboldening nations who oppose them.
His embrace of dictators and autocrats around the world has created and\or increased a new wave of tensions in many places around the world
And finally, his stance on Covid not only influenced other world leaders to not take it seriously, it encouraged many people around the world to listen to conspiracy theories that ultimately cost the lives of thousands of people, and damaged the health of thousands of others.


All of this is true, of course. But I'm hard pressed to think of any way in which UK government policy has been influenced by the presence of Trump in the White House. There was talk of a UK-US post-Brexit trade deal, but it came to nothing.

If Hillary Clinton had won in 2016, in what way do you think UK government policy would have been different under Theresa May or Boris Johnson?

 
CB27
1383167.  Mon Jun 14, 2021 1:31 pm Reply with quote

You're changing the goal posts from "Trump has no global influence" to "how has Trump affected UK policy".

OK. The very biggest change? You have to question if Theresa May would have chosen Boris Johnson as Foreign Secretary if not for Trump's love for him. Would Johnson have been chosen to be party leader if this had not happened?

Then there's Trump's undermining of NATO and other agreements which has caused the biggest defence spending increase in the UK since the collapse of the Soviet Union.

There are probably other examples of policy changes related to the changes I listed previously and others, but the above two are the main ones I can think of.

I can't be bothered to think about Clinton, Gore or others, they were not part of the original conversation.

And this begs the question, why are you constantly pushing back on the idea Trump was bad for the UK and globally? Why push back on Trump being called an autocrat (which is how this all started before the goalposts were moved to the next post code)?

 
PDR
1383528.  Sun Jun 20, 2021 3:05 am Reply with quote

Meanwhile there's this quite astonishing admission by the Texas Attorney Gwneral:

Texas AG Says Trump Would've 'Lost' State If It Hadn't Blocked Mail-in Ballots Applications Being Sent Out

Despite everything that's happened, the GOP are STILL supporting Trump. It tends to support the view that the USA has a two-party system comprised of a Democratic Party and an Undemocratic Party.

PDR

 
Jenny
1383556.  Sun Jun 20, 2021 9:38 am Reply with quote

Maybe I'm being overly optimistic, but I think there is beginning to be a split between the Trump-supporting Republicans, who are essentially descendants of the 1990s Neocons via the Tea Party, and the old-style pre-Reagan Republicans, who are much more wedded to the Constitution. See, for example, Mitt Romney and Liz Cheney.

 
Efros
1383564.  Sun Jun 20, 2021 10:49 am Reply with quote

Cracks are showing but not enough of them and not spreading fast enough for my liking.

 
CB27
1383606.  Mon Jun 21, 2021 7:10 am Reply with quote

The problem it seems is not that there are political differences between people, it's that some people are driven by political ideologies, and some by a tribal need to be part of a winning team at all costs.

 
tetsabb
1383627.  Mon Jun 21, 2021 11:14 am Reply with quote

Mike Pence gets heckled by rightwing religious audience
I can imagine the publishers putting that out with great relish. Is this a sign of those cracks mentioned above?

 
Brock
1383635.  Mon Jun 21, 2021 12:30 pm Reply with quote

CB27 wrote:
You have to question if Theresa May would have chosen Boris Johnson as Foreign Secretary if not for Trump's love for him.


Given that she appointed him as Foreign Secretary in July 2016, when Barack Obama was in power and everyone was expecting Hillary Clinton to become the next President, I doubt whether she remotely cared about what Donald Trump thought of anything.

 

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