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Ukraine

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Zebra57
1059560.  Fri Feb 28, 2014 3:05 pm Reply with quote

The claim that its ex-president has been responsible for the embezzlement of up to 70 billion dollars from the Ukrainian Government may limit Russian support for the previous regime.

 
Zebra57
1059563.  Fri Feb 28, 2014 3:07 pm Reply with quote

The claim that its ex-president has been responsible for the embezzlement of up to 70 billion dollars from the Ukrainian Government may limit Russian support for the previous regime.

 
knightmare
1059568.  Fri Feb 28, 2014 3:27 pm Reply with quote

Quote:
The claim that its ex-president has been responsible for the embezzlement of up to 70 billion dollars from the Ukrainian Government may limit Russian support for the previous regime.


No, but it'll limit the theoretical Russian support for the return of the previous regime.

 
Posital
1059754.  Sat Mar 01, 2014 12:43 pm Reply with quote

http://rt.com/news/russia-ukraine-approve-miltary-371/

"Russian senators vote to use stabilizing military forces on Ukrainian territory."

So it begins.

 
Posital
1059755.  Sat Mar 01, 2014 12:46 pm Reply with quote

15:46 GMT:
The speaker of the upper house of the Russian parliament, Valentina Matvienko, has ordered the committee for international affairs to ask President Putin to recall the Russian Ambassador to the US.

 
knightmare
1059762.  Sat Mar 01, 2014 1:43 pm Reply with quote

Quote:
"Russian senators vote to use stabilizing military forces on Ukrainian territory."

So it begins.


Waiting wasn't a component of the Russian strategy, but now the government has formal permission. Maybe they really want this part, risking losing (most of) the other parts to the western culture.

 
Zebra57
1059801.  Sat Mar 01, 2014 5:15 pm Reply with quote

The next move will call for a referendum in Crimea for full independence. Crimea has always had a high degree of self government and Ukrainian control of the territory, has to a certain extent been minimal. As Ukrainians constitute a very small minority of its population, the ethnic Russians and Russian speaking majority will welcome Putin's intervention. Official Russian incorporation may prove a step too far for even Putin's expansionist policies. A compliant pro-Russian administration, even if only recognised by Putin would probably tick all the Russian boxes.

The dismemberment of Georgia witnessed bluster from the West, but today it is a political reality.

 
knightmare
1059846.  Sun Mar 02, 2014 4:02 am Reply with quote

Yes, albeit such a compliant pro-Russian administration, only recognized by Vlad but not by Ukraine, comes down to Russian incorporation.

Apparently the Winter Olympics were too expensive to be interrupted by having to protect Russian people against armed gangs in the area, showing how important the Winter Paralympics really are.

 
Zebra57
1059848.  Sun Mar 02, 2014 4:25 am Reply with quote

The Winter Paralympics and G8 summit will be interesting. Will boycotts become an issue?

 
knightmare
1061965.  Fri Mar 07, 2014 3:08 pm Reply with quote

Agreement with Europe wrote:
Russian-backed President Viktor Yanukovich agreed to give up powers, hold early elections and form a government of national unity


Vlad +1, Europe -1, looks like they are about to take the area back.

 
Posital
1063497.  Sat Mar 15, 2014 3:03 am Reply with quote

Things getting messy on the ground - doesn't look good.

Looks like pro-russians attacking entrenched ukrainians.

Are the ruskies going to annex only the pro-russian areas of the crimea?

Or will the tatars get to vote for independence?

 
suze
1063517.  Sat Mar 15, 2014 7:48 am Reply with quote

Do very many of the Crimean Tatars seriously want independence? Sure, there are those who hark back to the days of the Crimean Khanate, but they tend to be disaffected urban youth comparable to those who espouse the politics of the far right elsewhere in Europe.

There are also those who espouse a radical version of Islam and identify with groups such as al Qaida. But in truth there aren't very many of them - the Wall Street Journal (11 Mar) reckoned it was a few hundred.

 
CB27
1063958.  Mon Mar 17, 2014 2:56 pm Reply with quote

Legal or not, there must already be a large question mark over the results.

We're told that the turnout was 83%, and that the vote to join Russia was 96%. A quick calculation suggests that abotu 80% of all eligible voters therefore voted to join Russia.

The last census we have from crimea is 2001, when the ethnic Russian population of Crimea made up 58.5%, Ukranians 24.4%, Tatars 12.1%, and others 5%.

Most Tatars didn't vote, and it's difficult to believe most Ukranians and others voted almost en masse to join Russia, and we also have to accept that nearly all ethnic Russian people in Crimea wanted to be part of Russia again rather than stay independent.

Some might argue that there was a massive population shift since 2001, but that belies the fact that the trend before 2001 was of a reduction in the majority of ethnic Russians in Crimea. If you want to look at more recent data, there are some statistics, such as last year's IRI survey, though I will accept these are not he same as a full referendum.

On the question, "Regardless of your passport, what do you consider yourself?", in 2011 45% said Russian, 28% Crimean, 14% Ukranian, 8% Tatar, 5% other/dk. In 2013 it was 40% Russian, 24% Crimean, 15% Ukranian, 15% Tatar, and 6% other/dk.

If we look at the breakdown, and look at ethnic Russians alon in 2013, the % who considered themselves Russian was 63%, with 29% as Crimean.

For the question, "In your opinion, what should the status of Crimea be?", people were given 4 choices and d/k. In 2011 49% wanted autonomy in Ukraine, 33% wanted to be part of Russia, 8% d/k, 6% full part of Ukraine, 4% Tatar autonomy in Ukraine. In 2013 it was 53% for autonomy in Ukraine, 23% for being part of Russia, 12% Tatar autonomy in Ukraine, 10% d/k, and 2% for full part of Ukraine.

When they looked at the ethnicity of all the respondents, it was made up of 59% ethnic Russians, 15% Tatar, 20% Ukranian, and 6% other.

Also worth noting is this report, just 3 years ago: http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/poll-most-crimean-residents-consider-ukraine-their-102113.html

It's hard to accept after all that info that 80% of the overall population eligible to vote wanted to be part of Russia.

 
knightmare
1063975.  Mon Mar 17, 2014 5:29 pm Reply with quote

Quote:
It's hard to accept after all that info that 80% of the overall population eligible to vote wanted to be part of Russia.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=836ykgavfVc

 
Zebra57
1064001.  Tue Mar 18, 2014 3:54 am Reply with quote

The vote did not matter, whichever way you look at it the election was rigged. It would be interesting to see an electoral register, if it exists and how many "Russian" voters were bussed in from outside Crimea and how many multiple votes were registered.

 

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