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The Really, Really Long Race To The White House 2012

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918487.  Thu Jun 21, 2012 10:26 am Reply with quote

I think there are a lot of people would never vote for Obama who are equally uneasy about a Mormon, so would simply choose not to vote at all. These sorts of people tend to live in the deeply Republican states, so it won't have any effect for them, but there is still quite a few like that in the swing states and it will take a big issue to get them to the polls - more anti-gay stuff probably - or there will probably be a very low voter turnout.

My guess : ideology trumps religion. Utah would vote for a conservative non-Mormon over a liberal Mormon for president.

From someone I vaguely know in Utah, it has been Romney all the way through the primaries, despite most people being much more suited to the more conservative candidates.

918490.  Thu Jun 21, 2012 10:29 am Reply with quote

Personally, I can't help but think that it is not his faith that is Romney's biggest obstacle, but the fact there are chicken nuggets with more personality than him.

918613.  Fri Jun 22, 2012 3:35 am Reply with quote

I think that is quite offensive

.. to chicken nuggets

927611.  Sun Jul 29, 2012 10:17 am Reply with quote

I know we're all a bit focussed on the Olympics but these are the odds the bookies are offering on Romney's running mate.

6/4- Tim Pawlenty
2/1 - Rob Portman
7/2 - Condoleezza Rice
11/2 - Marco Rubio
14/1 - Bobby Jindal
14/1 - Paul Ryan
14/1 - John Thune
18/1 - Kelly Ayotte
20/1 - Chris Christie
25/1 - Bob McDonnell

There are no real surprises, they're mostly younger than Romney and many of them appeal to a demographic he does not. I admit to not really having heard of Rob Portman so it's interesting to see him favoured so highly. Condoleezza would, of course, bring some much needed foreign policy experience to the ticket but I can't see her doing it, and at least two people on the list have explicitly ruled themselves out.

Personally, I'd be inclined to put a little wager on Marco Rubio, but we shall just have to wait and see. For the record, those who ran against him are all in the 50/1 or higher category but you can have Romney for VP candidate at 150/1, presumably for those still deluding themselves that Ron Paul can steal the nomination come the convention.

927645.  Sun Jul 29, 2012 1:21 pm Reply with quote

I'm inclined to agree with you, exnihilo. I can't see Condi Rice wanting the job, though she would be a good pick for many (obvious) reasons, and in fact if we had to have a Republican president I'd rather have her than Romney. I think she has also ruled herself out, but of course that sort of thing is always subject to mind-changing.

The problem with Portman and Pawlenty, the other well-fancied picks, is that they are another couple of fairly boring white males. Rubio has more about him personally, I think, and would also attract support from a community that voted overwhelmingly for Obama in the last presidential election, much to everyone's surprise given that Hispanic Americans are traditionally somewhat conservative politically.

927691.  Sun Jul 29, 2012 4:20 pm Reply with quote

Well, I put my money where my mouth is and put a tenner on him at 11/2 earlier.

927707.  Sun Jul 29, 2012 5:49 pm Reply with quote

I'm getting increasingly depressed as to the way this election more than any other is being bought.

927755.  Mon Jul 30, 2012 6:37 am Reply with quote

There is a former contributor to these boards who is probably delighted that Condi is on that list, and, who knows, may have put some of his doie money down in a bookie's.

927786.  Mon Jul 30, 2012 8:08 am Reply with quote

Delighted is an understatement. :P

927789.  Mon Jul 30, 2012 8:12 am Reply with quote

I must have expunged that individual from my memory.

927882.  Mon Jul 30, 2012 4:14 pm Reply with quote

Delighted? I think he must be blowing a gasket... :)

I wonder how the recent Olympics and other gaffes affected the race?

After Romney's various comments while in London, I was a little cynical at how well Michelle handled herself in a marked contrast ;)

Oceans Edge
927883.  Mon Jul 30, 2012 4:18 pm Reply with quote

ya gotta wonder if he has ANY chance at all when even Newsweek is calling him a WIMP

927887.  Mon Jul 30, 2012 4:41 pm Reply with quote

Unfortunately I don't think his international gaffes will make much impact on the domestic scene. Newsweek is a fairly liberal publication and IIRC were the first to find the story on Lewinski and Clinton but decided not to publish it.

Oceans Edge
927912.  Mon Jul 30, 2012 7:50 pm Reply with quote

ahhh interesting.... I always understood Newsweek to be fairly conservative. But, I've never read it much so I really can't comment on that personally, just what I was led to understand.

927922.  Mon Jul 30, 2012 8:21 pm Reply with quote

The problem is that the people who would vote for Romney anyway really don't care about what anybody in another country thinks - if anything it would make them more defensive. It might influence some swing voters (with luck) not to vote for him.


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