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The Really, Really Long Race To The White House 2012

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plach
890039.  Tue Feb 28, 2012 8:19 pm Reply with quote

So much is being said in the media about Romney's Michigan roots. His father was Governor there in the 1960's. and also ran for U. S. President in 1968.

Mitt left Michigan in 1965 when he went off to college and never lived there again as far as I can tell. Those don't seem like very strong ties to me.

He criticized President Obama for bailing out the auto industry in Michigan, at a time when the economy there was in dire shape. I don't think people there have forgotten his attitude.

I would think he had a very poor chance in Michigan against any candidate.

As far as Santorum....if he does obtain the nomination I think it would make Obama's re-election a sure thing.

 
exnihilo
890056.  Wed Feb 29, 2012 3:20 am Reply with quote

I think it would too, and it might force the GOP to look long and hard at itself. Sadly Romney took both states making the whole thing rather dull.

Newt still thinks he can pull it out the bag next week on Super Tuesday, I think he's deluding himself and the gig is Romney's now.

 
Jenny
890106.  Wed Feb 29, 2012 6:27 am Reply with quote

I think it's likely to be Romney. The Republicans have historically been the party of Buggins' Turn, and he at the moment is Buggins.

What I think may make it interesting is his choice of VP. In my opinion, Santorum is a candidate Mitt might seriously consider as VP in that I think Mitt needs a non-Mormon candidate alongside him and in that Santorum appeals to the evangelical base in a way that Mitt never has. However, it may be that there has been too much mud slung in both directions for either to think of the other as a running mate.

Chris Christie springs to mind as a good alternative option for Mitt. Also Jeb Bush, though I think Jeb would back away from what looks like a losing battle at the moment (I hope).

 
plach
890133.  Wed Feb 29, 2012 7:28 am Reply with quote

It seems like the election choices are wrapped, although there are still primaries ahead in many States.

exnihilo said:
Quote:
Newt still thinks he can pull it out the bag next week on Super Tuesday, I think he's deluding himself and the gig is Romney's now.

Of course Newt has seemed rather delusional for a long time. I agree with you that the gig is Romney's now.

Jenny said:
Quote:
What I think may make it interesting is his choice of VP. In my opinion, Santorum is a candidate Mitt might seriously consider...
Chris Christie springs to mind as a good alternative option for Mitt. Also Jeb Bush, though I think Jeb would back away from what looks like a losing battle at the moment (I hope).


I agree that Romney needs to choose a non-Mormon, and Santorum, Christie and Bush are all interesting potential choices. You are probably right that it would be difficult to have Santorum after all the mud-slinging. However, he would help with all those super conservative voters that Republicans need.

I don't know much about the other two, you've inspired me to read a bit more about them. I know that Jeb Bush is George's brother. I wonder if America isn't a bit tired of the Bush family.

In a few weeks Republicans that would like a chance at VP will be coming out of the woodwork to praise Romney. It will be interesting to see how far they will go.

 
exnihilo
890152.  Wed Feb 29, 2012 8:09 am Reply with quote

In a recent interview on Fox Romney apparently name dropped a few potential running mates. Neither Bush nor Santorum* was among them although, interestingly, 5 years ago he said he thought Newt would be good, probably not so much now. These people were:

Bobby Jindal, Governor of Louisiana, and America's first Indian governor (Punjabi Indian in this instance),

Susanna Martinez, Governor of New Mexico, who very quickly said she was not interested,

Nikki Haley, Governor of South Carolina, who has also said she's not interested,

Marc Rubio, the junior Senator from Florida,

And Chris Christie, Governor of New Jersey.

Interestingly, the interview was for Fox Latino and I wouldn't for a moment suggest he was pandering to the audience but every name mentioned is of minority extraction except Christie, and even he seems slightly skeptical at having been included:

Gov. Christie wrote:

I absolutely believe that, come November 2012, Im going to be governor of New Jersey and not in any other office. But the fact of the matter is, if Gov. Romney, whos going to be our nominee, picked up the phone and called me to talk about this, I love my country enough and I love my party enough to listen.




* Personally I'd be astounded if it was another of the candidates (which is VERY much the exception) or any one of the 'big hitters' tipped for standing in 2016.

 
cornixt
890235.  Wed Feb 29, 2012 11:19 am Reply with quote

Jenny wrote:
What I think may make it interesting is his choice of VP. In my opinion, Santorum is a candidate Mitt might seriously consider as VP in that I think Mitt needs a non-Mormon candidate alongside him and in that Santorum appeals to the evangelical base in a way that Mitt never has.

A Morman and a Catholic? I'm not sure that the social conservatives would go for that.


Quote:

Chris Christie springs to mind as a good alternative option for Mitt. Also Jeb Bush, though I think Jeb would back away from what looks like a losing battle at the moment (I hope).


I'd agree if I didn't think that Christie was aiming for his own run in 2016. He's smart enough to know there is no chance of winning this year, but I wouldn't put it passed him to get his name out there for more recognition with the aim of the next one. Of course, there are a lot of other decent Republican candidates who are also waiting for 2016 for the same reason.

 
Jenny
890431.  Thu Mar 01, 2012 6:06 am Reply with quote

I think Bobby Jindal carries a lot of baggage from his governorship that the Democrats would undoubtedly pounce on, though his Indian roots would make him an interesting choice from the diversity point of view. However, Asians are a much smaller minority in the US than they are in the UK, so in terms of appeal to specific voting blocs that's not huge.

I agree that Chris Christie is a smart enough cookie to possibly want to stay away from what looks like a losing race (though that may be my optimism speaking). Also the man looks incredibly unhealthy, and running for the Presidency is a physically stressful business, though Cheney was arguably unhealthier and survived it.

Marco Rubio would be another good choice, in that Latino voters went for Obama in a big way last time but many might be tempted back to vote for him. They are a big and important voting bloc in the US. However, Rubio, like Christie, is a serious contender for 2016.

It's interesting to speculate whether any of the potential 2016 candidates might gamble on increasing their status and name recognition this time in preparation for next time. Sarah Palin managed to stay in the public eye after all, and still has a following among people who don't think too much.

 
Neotenic
890755.  Fri Mar 02, 2012 4:54 am Reply with quote

Just when you thought it was safe to go back in the water.....


Obama's birth certificate may be forged (says Arizonan sheriff already under investigation for alleged racial discrimination that has not had access to the original documents.)

Quite aside from the Herculean display of stupid, I find the precise choice of words most illustrative;

Quote:
Based on all of the evidence presented and investigated I cannot in good faith report to you that these documents are authentic....

....My investigators believe that the long-form birth certificate was manufactured electronically and that it did not originate in a paper format as claimed by the White House


The important thing to note there is that he neatly skirts around saying they have evidence that the certificate was forged, just that they believe it was - and I think it is fair to say that is exactly what they believed before they even looked at the 'electronic copy' (or, I assume, scanned copy).

Looking at this electronic copy in isolation would never provide proof of authenticity - but I would be most interested to know exactly what makes them believe it was a fake, quite apart from their own prejudices.

 
PDR
890757.  Fri Mar 02, 2012 5:08 am Reply with quote

There are technical things that can show differences at the pixel level - whether line/colour edges are aliased, whether the line colour/density is constant (as it would be for an electronically-produced document) or with slight variations (as it would be if a hard-copy document was scanned and the scanning software averaged discrete colour intervals across the line) etc.

The antics of the american right should be viewed as entertainment rather than anything else IMHO, bless 'em!

PDR

 
dr.bob
890765.  Fri Mar 02, 2012 5:41 am Reply with quote

Jenny wrote:
Also the man looks incredibly unhealthy, and running for the Presidency is a physically stressful business, though Cheney was arguably unhealthier and survived it.


Ah, but a presidential election is probably a lot less stressful when you can fix the outcome ;-)

 
Efros
890780.  Fri Mar 02, 2012 6:20 am Reply with quote

PDR wrote:
The antics of the american right should be viewed as entertainment rather than anything else IMHO, bless 'em!

PDR


Just don't bless 'em in a federal building!

 
Jenny
890822.  Fri Mar 02, 2012 7:08 am Reply with quote

Oh my goodness, Orly Taitz will have a conniption fit - who'd'a thunk the birther nonsense could still have any traction?

 
Efros
890916.  Fri Mar 02, 2012 10:32 am Reply with quote

I think she has one of those every time she opens her gob.

 
PDR
890919.  Fri Mar 02, 2012 10:33 am Reply with quote

Efros wrote:
PDR wrote:
The antics of the american right should be viewed as entertainment rather than anything else IMHO, bless 'em!

PDR


Just don't bless 'em in a federal building!


ROFLMAO!

That's a screen and keybopard you owe my employer...

PDR

 
plach
891027.  Fri Mar 02, 2012 8:23 pm Reply with quote

Neotenic shared this:

Quote:
Obama's birth certificate may be forged (says Arizonan sheriff already under investigation for alleged racial discrimination that has not had access to the original documents.)


It seems like any time someone wants free publicity, or wants to distract attention from their own issues someone drags out the birth certificate nonsense. Why does the media even give them publicity? Even the most horrid outlets such as Fox News must realize how pointless these accusations are--what do they think is going to happen?

Obama will say "oh okay you got me' and resign? Then the last four years will be voided somehow?

Mind, I don't think for one nanosecond there is anything to this nonsense. I just don't understand what these people think they will accomplish. And why anyone in the media pays any attention to them whatsoever.

 

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