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Brexit (the EU Referendum debate)

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1178372.  Sun Feb 21, 2016 8:23 am Reply with quote

[I did look, but surprisingly couldn't find a thread on this - if there is one could the modes move this to that thread?]

Yesterday I heard what has to be the strongest (if not the clinching) argument for voting to stay in the EU. On the radio they were discussing the various politicians who have announced their positions, and it was said that one minister who had announced his support for leaving the EU was only doing so because, should the vote go for leaving, Camoron's position would become untenable and he was clearly positioning himself for the ensuing vacancy in No10.

Personally I wouldn't care if immigration floodgates were wedged open, an absolute hereditary tyranny established in Brussels and the UK's contribution was raised to 50% of GDP if the alternative was that person in Number 10. I can think of few more chilling phrases than "Prime Minister Gove"...

Bonjour et beinvenue Brussels!!!


1178379.  Sun Feb 21, 2016 8:46 am Reply with quote

I'm actually looking forward to being informed of the facts rather than the scare tactics employed by both sides

1178380.  Sun Feb 21, 2016 8:51 am Reply with quote

Could be a long wait...


1178381.  Sun Feb 21, 2016 8:56 am Reply with quote

There was quite a bit of it yesterday on the radio yesterday.
The one thing that did come to light is that the life after EU doom and gloom has been proved wrong with the Euro debate, we were told we would be weaker if we didn't join in, and while we cant say how things would have panned out if we had joined, its safe to say that sterling zone is stronger than eurozone.

1178393.  Sun Feb 21, 2016 10:51 am Reply with quote

As things have turned out that is true, mainly because of various consquences of the Great Crisis of 2008. That Crisis and its consequences could not realistically have been foreseen ten and fifteen years ahead of time.

Sure, the "I told you so" brigade are entitled to claim a win here. But had the nay-sayers actually outlined such a scenario ten and fifteen years in advance and used it in their argument for not joining the euro, they would have been rightly ridiculed. (And in any case, can we completely rule out the notion that the 2008 Crisis wouldn't have happened had the UK been part of the euro all along?)

Still, the present debate is not about the euro. The UK is not the only EU member state which chooses to remain outwith the euro, and indeed there are non EU-member states within it.

Neither is the present debate about NATO. A few on the IN side are using an argument which goes something like this:

1. Here are the OUT side's arguments for leaving the EU.
2. If it wanted to, it could use those same arguments to advocate leaving NATO.
3. Few in the UK seriously advocate leaving NATO.
4. Therefore, those arguments are not valid as reasons for leaving the EU.

This is a crap argument, and I trust we shall not go down that road here. (Unless of course, you do wish to advocate leaving NATO. But start a separate thread for that!)

I cannot imagine that very many are excited by the notion of Prime Minister Gove. On the other hand, plenty are excited by the notion of Prime Minister Boris and I do not rule out that it could come to pass.

Boris will state his position on the EU in an article in tomorrow's Daily Telegraph, but it has been leaked that he is to declare for OUT.

Is this nothing more than naked political expediency? Boris has long been seen as third only to Clarke and Cameron as an enthusiast for IN within the Tory High Command, and an unattributable briefing has it that he reiterated that position only a few days ago.

And yet he is now to support in public the side of the argument which he does not support in private. Can there be any good reason for that beyond a desire to be the next leader? Will it be rather amusing if it comes back to bit him hard on the arse?

1178396.  Sun Feb 21, 2016 11:05 am Reply with quote

Boris is a very intelligent man, he will support the side that will benefit his vision for the UK over what he privately believes.

But this is the problem, could we have predicted 2008, well I would say that the answer is yes we could, and I will go as far as to say it will happen again - because that is the way that it works. Norman Lamont has often shared the advice he was given when he oversaw a recession. It was sit tight, because the economy will bring itself round.
What I really want to hear is "this is what we pay in, and this is the benefit we get from that payment" you can comevwith your doom and gloom that the world will cast us off into a trading abyss, but that doesn't cut it. You have no prove that will happen because it hasn't happened. You can say that this is what we get for our money, because that is what it is. Tell me that facts so I can make up my mind, that is all you need to do.

1178429.  Sun Feb 21, 2016 2:00 pm Reply with quote

barbados wrote:
Boris is a very intelligent man, he will support the side that will benefit his vision for the UK over what he privately believes.

As many others have cynically noted, there is a strong likelihood that Boris is supporting the side that he believes will benefit his career, rather than his country.

1178430.  Sun Feb 21, 2016 2:04 pm Reply with quote

He believes they are one and the same ;)

1178453.  Sun Feb 21, 2016 3:42 pm Reply with quote

And it appears that Johnson has decided to be an Outie. So he can vie with Gove as successor to Cameron.
Can one imagine a joint press conference with PM,Johnson and President Trump? Kill me now.

1178462.  Sun Feb 21, 2016 4:45 pm Reply with quote

Could one imagine a joint press conference given by President Trump and Prime Minister Corbyn?

No, me either. If those two are ever in the respective big chairs at the same time, the so-called special relationship could go back to a place it hasn't been since 1812 ...

1178500.  Mon Feb 22, 2016 3:07 am Reply with quote

Hmmmm... Is it just me or is Boris actually taking quite some gamble with his stance? London will vote In, that's for sure, and if only because the City firms have plenty of other places to go if the UK votes Out. So yeah, if, and what a big if that is, the UK votes Out, Cameron will resign and Boris will become his successor. But if the UK votes in, Cameron will stay and Boris won't be mayor of London for much longer either. Or is that just the skewed perspective for someone looking at the debate from the outside?



1178502.  Mon Feb 22, 2016 3:16 am Reply with quote

AlmondFacialBar wrote:
......London will vote In, that's for sure.....

FYI, I'm in London and I'm currently in the "Out, and run like a bastard in the opposite direction" camp. But then I know as much of big business as I do of politics so my opinion may not be generally shared.

1178505.  Mon Feb 22, 2016 3:35 am Reply with quote

I think you underestimate the strength and breadth of anti-EU feeling in the UK at the moment, AFB. I'm of the "in" persuasion*, but frankly I think the range of potential referendum outcomes is between "too close to call" and "out but a margin of 60-40 or greater".

The UK might change its mind if the power of the European Parliament was increased, the power of the Council of Ministers was massively reduced and the European Commission was reverted to a small civil service whose only function was to implement the policy set by the democratic bodies, and whose employees were subject to summary execution should they ever attempt to create law or exercise power. The majority of the UK feel that Commission is essentially the Golgafrinchan B-Ark, and should be treated in the same way.

The UK also feel that the European Court should behave more like the US Supreme Court - in >99% of cases it should simply decline to accept the case as its a local issue beyond its competence, only poking its nose in where there is a supra-national element to the subject. The US Supreme Court does this even though its the defender of the US Constitution - the EU has no constitution to defend...


* Although I totally get what the more serious element of the outies are concerned about

1178506.  Mon Feb 22, 2016 4:15 am Reply with quote

Admittedly, most people I know in the UK probably aren't representative of anything much, so you may well have a point there. Mind - re Boris I'm pretty much exclusively talking about inside the M25, where a lot of jobs do actually profit from EU membership, no?



1178532.  Mon Feb 22, 2016 6:25 am Reply with quote

In my case Boris' stance would be enough to make me vote to stay in.


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