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Hype Cycle

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Neotenic
598634.  Wed Aug 12, 2009 6:18 pm Reply with quote

I stumbled across this rather wonderful little chart this afternoon, called the Hype Cycle, which is produced by a company called Gartner.

The hype cycle is a framework is used by the company to demonstrate its judgement of the current trends in a number of different markets. I'm not particularly interested in the predictions themselves, as they strike me as being very elaborate guess work, but the framework itself I found to be quite nourishing brain food. It looks like this;



The added bonus to a framework that certainly on face value seems to make an awful lot of sense is the introduction of the phrase 'Peak Of Inflated Expectations'.

Here it is with some more commentary



lots more here.

Oh, and just for completeness, here it is with this years predictions for emerging technologies;





As I say, I don't necessarily see an awful lot of worth in the specific predictions myself - especially the longer-term ones. But it is faintly interesting to note that they think micro-blogging (or rather, Twitter) is due for a backlash.

 
Posital
598639.  Wed Aug 12, 2009 6:25 pm Reply with quote

Thanks for this.

 
suze
598646.  Wed Aug 12, 2009 6:41 pm Reply with quote

It is rather interesting. It's quite similar to the Product Life Cycle, a thing I had to learn about in the Management module they made me take at the beginning of my PhD (I never knew why either).

Except that there's no tail-off in this Hype Cycle; surely there should be? Once a product has become mainstream, doesn't the hype disappear, to be followed by the product an indeterminate period of time later?

 
bobwilson
598647.  Wed Aug 12, 2009 6:48 pm Reply with quote

To put this into words it's basically:

New gizmo/technology/paradigm is invented
Upcycle -
a few people think it's "really cool" and play around with it
more people join in (anything new is interesting almost by definition)
Peak -
the majority start to realise that while it's fun being able to fast forward your VCR and make John Wayne talk faster the entertainment value starts to wane after the first few dozen times
Downcycle -
or rather retrenchment - the technology is used for it's core purpose and reverts to the "useful" level
Slow upcycle
As time passes other, previously unexpected, uses of the gizmo start to emerge

If you redraw the graph ignoring the spike then you see a gradual increase. The spike is simply a whole load of people all saying "wow - cool" at once - there's only so long you can think of something as "cool" before you start insisting on it actually doing something useful for you.

 
Neotenic
598651.  Wed Aug 12, 2009 7:09 pm Reply with quote

Quote:
Except that there's no tail-off in this Hype Cycle; surely there should be? Once a product has become mainstream, doesn't the hype disappear, to be followed by the product an indeterminate period of time later?


I guess that is a product of the purpose of the tool, really - it's for tracking emerging trends, rather than receding ones.

I suppose, for completeness, you could tack an Abyss of Obselesence on the end if you so desired.

The shape of the cycle also caught my attention, as it looks a lot like George Soros' explanation of how stock market bubbles build and burst. Although I can't find an online representation of the one in his latest book, it's quite a lot like this;



Taken together, they both seem to point towards mankinds inherent predeliction for getting carried away, in both directions.

 

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