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Brexit (the EU Referendum debate)

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Spud McLaren
1212397.  Sun Nov 20, 2016 9:37 am Reply with quote

I think that what Zziggy's trying to point out (but I may be wrong) is that if we as a nation had taken more note of how accommodating the rest of the EU had been to the UK whilst we were members, we wouldn't be in this situation at all now.

 
14-11-2014
1212399.  Sun Nov 20, 2016 9:40 am Reply with quote

Media logic.

 
Spud McLaren
1212400.  Sun Nov 20, 2016 9:42 am Reply with quote

Mammalian gestation periods

 
suze
1212401.  Sun Nov 20, 2016 10:02 am Reply with quote

barbados wrote:
Personally speaking, now that the decision has been made, we would actually benefit from an initial hard brexit, then begin negotiations on a trade agreement in 2 years time. It will be the least damaging for both sides, yes it may take longer - if only because the Belgians hold everything up seemingly for shits and giggles - but we will be on a sure footing to move forward much quicker.


There is an argument for what you suggest, and it's an argument that some of the Brexiters are putting forward. They're doing it rather hamfistedly, and still seem to want to talk more about immigration than anything else, but it appears to be the basis of for instance David Davies's position and Boris's position.

It's not Farage's position, though. He wants Britain to remain within the EEA and the customs union on an interim basis after leaving the EU, and then figure out how to leave them.

For "may" take longer, you should perhaps read "will" take longer. The Belgian objection to the treaty with Canada was mainly just awkwardness, but they can do that and someone will.

Belgium and France are the countries most likely to be awkward just because they can, but - depending on precisely what proposal is put to them - there may be countries with more substantive objections. For instance, Ireland will veto any agreement which includes the erection of a hard border on the island of Ireland.

Now, let us suppose that the government's action is in fact as you suggest. We leave the EU on (let us say) 1 April 2019, and revert to WTO terms for all our trade with the EU in the first instance.

Then we start to think about a trade agreement. It takes sixteen years* because of Belgian belligerence, French foolhardiness, and Irish intransigence, but from 1 April 2035 we have tariff free trade with the EU. This is all very well, if there are any British businesses left to benefit from it.


* The Canada deal has taken eight years, and does not eliminate all tariffs. What's more, there is no government within the EU which has a particular desire to be awkward towards Canada. So I'm assuming that Britain's deal will take twice as long.

 
Zziggy
1212402.  Sun Nov 20, 2016 10:02 am Reply with quote

Spud McLaren wrote:
I think that what Zziggy's trying to point out (but I may be wrong) is that if we as a nation had taken more note of how accommodating the rest of the EU had been to the UK whilst we were members, we wouldn't be in this situation at all now.

Pretty much, thanks Spud.

From the EU's point of view, they've done nothing but compromise for us. What we are now demanding from them is less 'compromising' and more 'abandoning their fundamental principles in such a way as to jeopardise their continued survival'.

 
PDR
1212426.  Sun Nov 20, 2016 11:14 am Reply with quote

Whereas I think Barby's point is essentially just being candid - he feels that everything is for the best in the best of all possible worlds.

PDR

 
Spud McLaren
1212429.  Sun Nov 20, 2016 11:18 am Reply with quote

PDR wrote:
Whereas I think Barby's point is essentially just being candid - he feels that everything is for the best in the best of all possible worlds.
Maybe it is, but is this that best of all possible worlds? Sometimes I feel as though we're a little down the rankings ...

 
PDR
1212435.  Sun Nov 20, 2016 11:34 am Reply with quote

No, no - we obviously cannot even assess our position in the rankings until after the negotiations are completed and Prime Minister Michael Gove leads us boldly into the bright new future of comradeship with the benificent President Trump which must (by definition) be the only possible future because we cannot definitively prove that it will not occur.

So obviously anything we say on the matter now is just fear-mongering.

PDR

 
Spud McLaren
1212452.  Sun Nov 20, 2016 2:12 pm Reply with quote

Oh, well - at least you're not making a song and dance* about it.

* without the dance.

 
barbados
1212453.  Sun Nov 20, 2016 2:18 pm Reply with quote

Spud McLaren wrote:
PDR wrote:
Whereas I think Barby's point is essentially just being candid - he feels that everything is for the best in the best of all possible worlds.
Maybe it is, but is this that best of all possible worlds? Sometimes I feel as though we're a little down the rankings ...

It is pure candidness, the fact is the result went a particular way, and that in itself caused a problem, the longer things go on the more problematic it will be. If it transpires that we don't leave the EU then theprobelms wont magic away, they will continue, because you cannot change what has happened all there is left is to make the most of what we have.

As suze pointed out, no one in the world has an issue with Canada, they pretty much get along with anyone - probably only Russia have an issue relating to the Arctic but thats it. The trade agreement between the EU and Canada took eight years for one reason - the Belgians wanted to hold things up. How can you tell me that once the divorce from the EU has completed we wont be in a better position to trade with the world?

 
Dix
1212456.  Sun Nov 20, 2016 2:47 pm Reply with quote

barbados wrote:

(...)
As suze pointed out, no one in the world has an issue with Canada, they pretty much get along with anyone - probably only Russia have an issue relating to the Arctic but thats it.
(...)


In the interest of completeness: http://www.worldatlas.com/articles/hans-island-boundary-dispute-canada-denmark-territorial-conflict.html

Fairly amicable, but still.

 
14-11-2014
1212478.  Sun Nov 20, 2016 5:24 pm Reply with quote

Quote:
How can you tell me that once the divorce from the EU has completed we wont be in a better position to trade with the world?

A win-win scenario, unknown to politicians and scientists. Do you have a list of non-EU countries, Canada for example, which have individual trade deals with all souvereign EU members? According to your statement that's a (unspecified) better position than having to deal with the EU.

The reversed lists may include Ukraine, due to an Ukexit referendum. They'll have a deal with 27 EU members (including the UK), but they prefer a deal with EU28, instead of having to trade with EU27 and having an alledged better position to trade with one EU member. Ukraine doesn't like the theoretical better position.

And why has the UK always the exclusive rights to slow down the EU again (yet another Brexit referendum, discount, no Euro, and so on), but is a democratic delay of a few days, caused and solved by Belgium, a problem?


Last edited by 14-11-2014 on Sun Nov 20, 2016 5:40 pm; edited 1 time in total

 
CharliesDragon
1212479.  Sun Nov 20, 2016 5:32 pm Reply with quote

Spud McLaren wrote:
PDR wrote:
Whereas I think Barby's point is essentially just being candid - he feels that everything is for the best in the best of all possible worlds.
Maybe it is, but is this that best of all possible worlds? Sometimes I feel as though we're a little down the rankings ...


I have suspected for a while the world I knew split into two parallel universes and I am now experiencing the more crazy of the one. Or someone found both the Question and the Answer to Life, The Universe and Everything, causing it to be replaced with something crazier than what was before.
There's also the possibility that I've just finally began paying attention to the going-ons in the world, but that's a much more boring alternative.

 
barbados
1212514.  Mon Nov 21, 2016 2:19 am Reply with quote

14-11-2014 wrote:
Quote:
How can you tell me that once the divorce from the EU has completed we wont be in a better position to trade with the world?

A win-win scenario, unknown to politicians and scientists. Do you have a list of non-EU countries, Canada for example, which have individual trade deals with all souvereign EU members? According to your statement that's a (unspecified) better position than having to deal with the EU.

The reversed lists may include Ukraine, due to an Ukexit referendum. They'll have a deal with 27 EU members (including the UK), but they prefer a deal with EU28, instead of having to trade with EU27 and having an alledged better position to trade with one EU member. Ukraine doesn't like the theoretical better position.

And why has the UK always the exclusive rights to slow down the EU again (yet another Brexit referendum, discount, no Euro, and so on), but is a democratic delay of a few days, caused and solved by Belgium, a problem?


The list of countries that woul have an individual trade deal with EU states is as follows.
1)

The reason the list is sooooo long is because it is not permitted under EU rules.

I'm pretty certain that Canada would have loved to have a trade deal with the remaining 27 EU states and ignored Belgium given the choice but she had to wait, just because.

Would each country be in a better position? Well that is an answer we will never know, but ask yourself how much easier it would be if you were to go shopping with 27 of your neighbours, and you all had to agree on what to buy? Especially if one of your neighbours wanted white bread instead of brown, quinoa instead of cous cous, and full fat milk instead of semi skimmed for no other reason than just being awkward.

 
PDR
1212519.  Mon Nov 21, 2016 3:39 am Reply with quote

barbados wrote:

It is pure candidness,


Whooosh....

PDR

 

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